Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc (ARCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $234M · ISIN US03969T1097
What is Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc really worth?
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc
ARCT · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 140% above our fair value of $6.48.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +150.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.28 to $8.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.53 – $58.25 · fair‑value band $4.28 – $8.10 · the $15.56 price screens above the $6.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc (ARCT) currently trades at $15.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.48, implying the stock looks roughly 140.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $54.7M. It earns a return on equity of −37.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $206M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.28 (bear case) to $8.10 (bull case); at $15.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 166% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −58%, ARCT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., a messenger RNA medicines company, focuses on the development of liver and respiratory rare disease therapeutics. Its technology platforms include STARR, a self-amplifying mRNA technology platform, and LUNAR, a lipid-mediated delivery system.
Full company description
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., a messenger RNA medicines company, focuses on the development of liver and respiratory rare disease therapeutics. Its technology platforms include STARR, a self-amplifying mRNA technology platform, and LUNAR, a lipid-mediated delivery system. The company also develops ARCT-032 (LUNAR-CF), an mRNA therapeutic candidate for cystic fibrosis that is in Phase 2 clinical development; and ARCT-810 (LUNAR-OTC), which is in Phase 2 clinical development to address ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency. In addition, it develops KOSTAIVE, a self-amplifying RNA vaccine for COVID-19; ARCT-2138 (LUNAR-FLU), which is in Phase1 clinical trial for the treatment of seasonal influenza; and ARCT-2304 (LUNAR-H5N1) that is in Phase1 clinical trial for the treatment of Pandemic Influenza. Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc reported revenue of $67.2M in FY2025 versus $12.4M in FY2021, a compound +52.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$65.8M in FY2025.
ARCT screens 140% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $111.40 | $45.66 | −59% |
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