Ambarella Inc (AMBA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.4B · ISIN KYG037AX1015
What is Ambarella Inc really worth?
Ambarella Inc
AMBA · US
A solid business, but trading 198% above our fair value of $21.24.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −22.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.79 – $216.84 · fair‑value band $16.08 – $26.39 · the $63.38 price screens above the $21.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Ambarella Inc (AMBA) currently trades at $63.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.24, implying the stock looks roughly 198.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $24.14 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $63.38 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.08, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambarella Inc generated revenue of $405M at a net margin of −17.2%. Revenue grew 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −11.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $178M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.08 (bear case) to $26.39 (bull case); at $63.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −71% fair-value upside, at −66%, AMBA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($24.14) versus Asset-Based ($9.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation.
Full company description
Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation. The company's system-on-a-chip (SOC) integrates third generation CVflow technology with advanced video processing, image signal processing, audio processing, and system control functions on a single chip. It also offers central domain controllers, CVflow SoCs, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, as well as licenses software modules. The company's solutions are used in automotive video recorders, electronic mirrors, front advanced driver assistance system camera, AI Telematics Systems, and cabin monitoring system and driver monitoring system cameras in automotive field; central domain controllers for autonomous vehicles in autonomy; enterprise and public class, and home security cameras in the field of IoT; and enterprise, home, public spaces, and consumer applications, as well as for video conferencing, access control, healthcare, medical, and virtual reality applications. It sells its solutions to original design manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, automotive market, and Tier-1 suppliers through its direct sales force and distributors. The company operates in Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the United States, and rest of North America. Ambarella, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ambarella Inc reported revenue of $391M in FY2026 versus $332M in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$75.9M in FY2026.
AMBA screens 198% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ambarella Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Earnings Conference Call to be Held September 3, 2026
- Strength Seen in Ambarella (AMBA): Can Its 16.1% Jump Turn into More Strength?
- Key deals this week: Ambarella, MarketAxess, argenx SE, TransDigm, and more
- Is Ambarella (AMBA) Cheap After Rumored NXP Takeover Talks?
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | €1,494 | €604.27 | −60% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $482.36 | $183.10 | −62% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $301.90 | $91.80 | −70% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $175.54 | $74.58 | −58% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥707.90 | ¥205.30 | −71% |
| Teradyne, Inc TER | $354.97 | $65.80 | −81% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥380.95 | ¥55.05 | −86% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥685.11 | ¥89.27 | −87% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,445 TWD | 1,804 TWD | −72% |
| Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 | ¥284.80 | ¥46.26 | −84% |
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