Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Applied Materials Inc stock $369, price $377, upside -2.2%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
Quality WatchlistQuality growthA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.
The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 76/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 30.1% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
0.5% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(9/15)
Wide moat98/100
Broad data
Fair value $368.90 · Fairly valued (−2.2%)
Insider activity45/100
🚩AI risk: US export controls restrict China access🚩AI risk: Chinese rivals gain share in mature nodes🚩AI risk: Rare earth supply dependence on China⟳ Cyclical
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.00 – $722.23 · fair‑value band $210.40 – $494.86 · the $377.24 price screens above the $368.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally.
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The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments.
The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation.
The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products.
It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock analysis
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) currently trades at $377.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $368.90, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $190.33 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $377.24 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $66.33, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $210.40 (bear) to $494.86 (bull), the price of $377.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Applied Materials Inc reported revenue of $28.4B in FY2025 versus $23.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $7.0B in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $305B Mega · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 9.90 · EPS (TTM) $11.59 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 30.1% · Return on equity 41.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −2%, AMAT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$210.40Fair Value $368.90Bull$494.86
Price $377.24 · Upside -2.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+21.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.2% vs 22.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.9% a year for the price and +24.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Applied Materials draws strength from recurring revenue in its Applied Global Services segment via AIx software monitoring over 37,000 chambers, yet its main weak point is limited visibility into human capital alongside cyclical industry exposure.
Main risk: Tighter US export controls could further reduce sales to Chinese customers that account for around a quarter of revenue and raise compliance costs or penalties as seen in past settlements.
Bull case: By deepening partnerships through its EPIC Center and expanding AIx services in non-China markets, the company could accelerate innovation and grow recurring revenue to offset any China-related constraints.
Bear case: If export controls tighten further and Chinese suppliers expand in more segments, the company could lose significant revenue from its largest geographic market and face sustained margin pressure in key product areas.
Applied Materials connects more than 37,000 equipment chambers to its AIx software for real-time monitoring and predictive analytics. This supports recurring revenue growth in the Applied Global Services segment that outpaces many equipment cycles. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the stable services income offset risks from heavy spending on new AI packaging technologies more effectively than fresh equipment orders?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 227 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $368.90 versus a price of $377.24, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMAT?
Our model-based fair value for Applied Materials Inc is $368.90 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $377.24.
What is the quality score of AMAT?
Applied Materials Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $368.90 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $210.40, optimistic scenario $494.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Applied Materials Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $368.90, about −2% upside versus a price of $377.24 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $210.40, optimistic scenario $494.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Applied Materials Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Applied Materials Inc pay a dividend?
Applied Materials Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Applied Materials Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMAT use?
Our models discount Applied Materials Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Applied Materials Inc that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Applied Materials Inc grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Applied Materials Inc (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.89 %: that much free cash flow Applied Materials Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Applied Materials Inc it is $368.90 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $377.24. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Applied Materials Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, AMAT trades above its calculated fair value: price $377.24, fair value $368.90, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMAT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($377.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($368.90). For Applied Materials Inc the two are $8.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Applied Materials Inc worth?
The market values Applied Materials Inc at about $305B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $377.24; our models calculate a fair value of $368.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMAT?
Our models span a range for Applied Materials Inc: cautious scenario $210.40, base $368.90, optimistic $494.86 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $377.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMAT?
Applied Materials Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $368.90 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 36.7 (reported for FY2025: 43.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018 ex one-offs: 18.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 15.0, P/S 9.9, EV/EBITDA 30.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AMAT?
The PEG ratio of Applied Materials Inc is 0.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Applied Materials Inc (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 41.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMAT from its 52-week high?
Applied Materials Inc trades at $377.24, about 48% below its 52-week high of $722.23 and 72% above the low of $219.45 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $368.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Applied Materials Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Applied Materials Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $377.24, calculated fair value $368.90 (−2%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMAT calculated?
We run Applied Materials Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $368.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Applied Materials Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $377.24. Our model-based fair value is $368.90, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Applied Materials Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($210.40 to $494.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) come from?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc grew +24.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.6 %, EBIT margin +5.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Applied Materials Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The market capitalisation of Applied Materials Inc is $305B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Applied Materials Inc is 9.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc are $11.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The dividend yield of Applied Materials Inc is 0.5% (payout 14.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 17.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The net margin of Applied Materials Inc is 30.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Applied Materials Inc is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Applied Materials Inc is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
The operating margin of Applied Materials Inc is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Revenue at Applied Materials Inc is growing +24.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)?
Earnings per share at Applied Materials Inc are growing +42.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) hold?
Applied Materials Inc holds more cash than debt, $191M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 23, 2026