Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc stock ¥123, price ¥267, upside -53.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥80.15 – ¥490.33 · fair‑value band ¥61.20 – ¥172.58 · the ¥266.70 price screens above the ¥123.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of high-end semiconductor equipment and related semiconductor equipment in China, Taiwan, and internationally.
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The company offers etch products, including Primo D-RIE, Primo AD-RIE, Primo SSC AD-RIE, Primo iDEA, Primo HD-RIE, Primo TSV, Primo Nanova, Primo Twin-Star, and Primo UD-RIE; and MOCVD products, such as Prismo D-BLUE, Prismo A7, Prismo HiT3, and Prismo UniMax. It also provides Preforma Uniflex CW system, a CVD metal-tungsten deposition equipment; and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) air purifier for industrial use.
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) currently trades at ¥266.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥123.44, 53.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥111.41 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥266.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥21.33, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥61.20 (bear) to ¥172.58 (bull), the price of ¥266.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc reported revenue of 12.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +41.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +20.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 265B CNY (≈ $39.7B) Large · P/E ratio 45.7 · P/S ratio 7.80 · EPS (TTM) ¥5.83 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 17.0% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −54%, 688012 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥3.29 to ¥116.64). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥61.20Fair Value ¥123.44Bull¥172.58
Price ¥266.70 · Upside -53.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥4.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+30.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+34.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+37.3%) comes with 54% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about −11.0%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.5% a year for the price and +32.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Targeted investments are driving strong first-half results from domestic demand, yet thin evidence leaves the durability of growth in new equipment categories unclear.
Main risk: Cooling AI spending would reduce demand for the company's broadening equipment portfolio and advanced packaging solutions.
AMEC is pushing hard into new equipment categories and advanced packaging through targeted investments while its chairman has warned of an AI bubble and coming consolidation in China's chip tools sector. Strong first-half results show the benefits of domestic demand, yet our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the broader product push deliver lasting advantages or leave the business more vulnerable if AI spending cools?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 227 stocks
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Is Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥123.44 versus a price of ¥266.70, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688012?
Our model-based fair value for Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is ¥123.44 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥266.70.
What is the quality score of 688012?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥123.44 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥61.20, optimistic scenario ¥172.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥123.44, about −54% upside versus a price of ¥266.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥61.20, optimistic scenario ¥172.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc pay a dividend?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +41.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688012 use?
Our models discount Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc that is +41.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc grew +40.4 % a year. The price currently implies +41.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (+41.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.87 %: that much free cash flow Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc it is ¥123.44 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of ¥266.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 688012 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥266.70, fair value ¥123.44, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688012?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥266.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥123.44). For Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc the two are ¥143.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc worth?
The market values Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc at about 265B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is ¥266.70; our models calculate a fair value of ¥123.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688012?
Our models span a range for Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc: cautious scenario ¥61.20, base ¥123.44, optimistic ¥172.58 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price ¥266.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688012?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.7 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥123.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.4, P/S 18.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Balance-sheet figures for Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688012 from its 52-week high?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc trades at ¥266.70, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥490.33 and 3% above the low of ¥259.48 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥123.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price ¥266.70, calculated fair value ¥123.44 (−54%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688012 calculated?
We run Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥123.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥266.70. Our model-based fair value is ¥123.44, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥172.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (¥61.20 to ¥172.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The market capitalisation of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 265B CNY (≈ $39.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 7.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Earnings per share at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc are ¥5.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The dividend yield of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 0.1% (payout 4.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The net margin of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 17.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
The operating margin of Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Revenue at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc is growing +35.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012)?
Earnings per share at Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc are growing +376% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc (688012) hold?
Advanced Micro Fabrication Inc holds more cash than debt, 7.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 22, 2026