Lam Research Corp (LRCX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lam Research Corp stock $251, price $230, upside +9.0%, quality 86 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.32 – $432.87 · fair‑value band $135.90 – $319.78 · the $230.10 price screens below the $250.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe.
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The company offers ALTUS systems to deposit conformal or selective films for tungsten or molybdenum metallization applications; SABRE electrochemical deposition products for copper interconnect transition that offers copper damascene manufacturing; SPEED gapfill high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (CVD) products; Striker single-wafer atomic layer deposition products for dielectric film solutions; and VECTOR plasma-enhanced CVD products.
It also provides Flex for dielectric etch applications; Vantex, a dielectric etch system that provides RF technology and repeatable wafer-to-wafer performance enabled by Equipment Intelligence solutions; Kiyo for conductor etch applications; Syndion for through-silicon via etch applications; and Versys metal products for metal etch processes.
In addition, the company offers Coronus bevel clean products to enhance die yield; and Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, and SP series products to address various wafer cleaning applications.
Further, it provides Reliant deposition, etch, and clean products; and Sense.i platform products, as well as customer service, spares, and upgrades. Lam Research Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Stock analysis
Lam Research Corp (LRCX) currently trades at $230.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $250.92, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $169.54 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $230.10 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $53.59, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $135.90 (bear) to $319.78 (bull), the price of $230.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lam Research Corp reported revenue of $23.2B in FY2026 versus $17.2B in FY2022, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $7.3B in FY2026, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $298B Mega · P/E ratio 39.9 · P/S ratio 12.8 · EPS (TTM) $5.76 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 31.3% · Return on equity 65.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 9%, LRCX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$135.90Fair Value $250.92Bull$319.78
Price $230.10 · Upside +9.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.5% vs 27.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 35%
2026 sits 74% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.8% a year for the price and +19.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat supported by strong profitability metrics forms the main strength, while limited public signals across most categories and thin evidence represent the primary weakness.
Main risk: US government export controls and licensing requirements could restrict Lam Research's ability to provide advanced etch and deposition equipment to Chinese customers, reducing revenue from a historically significant market segment.
Bull case: Lam Research could integrate AI tools into its own equipment and modeling platforms to enhance process efficiency and maintain or expand its role in advanced semiconductor manufacturing despite regulatory or technological shifts.
Bear case: Tighter export restrictions combined with customer adoption of alternative AI-enabled processes could materially shrink addressable markets and erode Lam Research's equipment demand over several years.
Lam Research has won new etch business using its Akara system and Aether dry resist for advanced DRAM lines at a major producer. This ties the company more closely to spending on DDR5, LPDDR5 and high-bandwidth memory capacity. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Do these customer endorsements strengthen the case for durable share gains in memory, or do they simply underscore how much AI-driven growth is already expected?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 227 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lam Research Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LRCX
Frequently asked questions
Is Lam Research Corp (LRCX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $250.92 versus a price of $230.10, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LRCX?
Our model-based fair value for Lam Research Corp is $250.92 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $230.10.
What is the quality score of LRCX?
Lam Research Corp has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $250.92 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $135.90, optimistic scenario $319.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lam Research Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $250.92, about +9% upside versus a price of $230.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $135.90, optimistic scenario $319.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Lam Research Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Lam Research Corp pay a dividend?
Lam Research Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lam Research Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +32.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LRCX use?
Our models discount Lam Research Corp at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lam Research Corp that is +32.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lam Research Corp (LRCX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lam Research Corp grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +32.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lam Research Corp (LRCX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lam Research Corp (+32.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 %: that much free cash flow Lam Research Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lam Research Corp it is $250.92 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $230.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lam Research Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, LRCX trades below its calculated fair value: price $230.10, fair value $250.92, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LRCX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($230.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($250.92). For Lam Research Corp the two are $20.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lam Research Corp worth?
The market values Lam Research Corp at about $298B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $230.10; our models calculate a fair value of $250.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LRCX?
Our models span a range for Lam Research Corp: cautious scenario $135.90, base $250.92, optimistic $319.78 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $230.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LRCX?
Lam Research Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.9 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $250.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 23.9, P/S 12.8, EV/EBITDA 34.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LRCX?
The PEG ratio of Lam Research Corp is 1.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lam Research Corp (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 65.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LRCX from its 52-week high?
Lam Research Corp trades at $230.10, about 47% below its 52-week high of $432.87 and 66% above the low of $138.95 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $250.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lam Research Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lam Research Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $230.10, calculated fair value $250.92 (+9%), Quality Score 86/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LRCX calculated?
We run Lam Research Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $250.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Lam Research Corp currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $230.10. Our model-based fair value is $250.92, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lam Research Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($135.90 to $319.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lam Research Corp (LRCX) come from?
Earnings per share at Lam Research Corp grew +24.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.9 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lam Research Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The market capitalisation of Lam Research Corp is $298B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lam Research Corp is 12.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Earnings per share at Lam Research Corp are $5.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The dividend yield of Lam Research Corp is 0.5% (payout 18.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The net margin of Lam Research Corp is 31.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lam Research Corp is 65.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lam Research Corp is 28.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
The operating margin of Lam Research Corp is 37.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Revenue at Lam Research Corp is growing +30.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lam Research Corp (LRCX)?
Earnings per share at Lam Research Corp are growing +34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lam Research Corp (LRCX) hold?
Lam Research Corp holds more cash than debt, $1.5B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 23, 2026