ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ASML Holding N.V. stock €1,345, price €1,407, upside -4.4%, quality 82 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €383.65 – €1,719 · fair‑value band €860.98 – €1,749 · the €1,407 price screens above the €1,345 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
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It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies.
In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects.
Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services.
Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States.
The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) currently trades at €1,407, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1,345, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €776.84 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €1,407 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €243.82, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €860.98 (bear) to €1,749 (bull), the price of €1,407 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ASML Holding N.V. reported revenue of €32.7B in FY2025 versus €18.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was €9.6B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €543B Mega · P/E ratio 40.2 · P/S ratio 13.8 · EPS (TTM) €34.98 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 65.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −4%, ASML screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€860.98Fair Value €1,345Bull€1,749
Price €1,407 · Upside -4.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€23.20 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.9% vs 22.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 35%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.8% a year for the price and +23.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Dominant EUV position supports high margins and returns while limited signals on ownership and human capital leave alignment questions open.
Main risk: US and Dutch export restrictions could further reduce sales of lithography systems to Chinese customers, which account for a substantial share of revenue.
Bull case: The company could expand capacity for non-restricted markets and deepen ties with TSMC and other non-Chinese customers to offset any China-related curbs.
Bear case: Tighter export rules could sharply cut China revenue while any delays at Zeiss might constrain overall output and slow growth in the installed base.
ASML's installed-base management revenue rose to EUR 2.76 billion in the second quarter as more systems in the field require service and upgrades. Our models see the stock as overvalued, yet this stream now accounts for nearly 30 percent of sales and grows with the fleet rather than depending solely on new orders. Will the recurring portion expand fast enough to cushion any slowdown in fresh lithography system demand?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 227 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1,345 versus a price of €1,407, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ASML?
Our model-based fair value for ASML Holding N.V. is €1,345 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1,407.
What is the quality score of ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1,345 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €860.98, optimistic scenario €1,749. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASML Holding N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1,345, about −4% upside versus a price of €1,407 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €860.98, optimistic scenario €1,749. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
ASML Holding N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €39.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does ASML Holding N.V. pay a dividend?
ASML Holding N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASML Holding N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +24.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.5 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASML use?
Our models discount ASML Holding N.V. at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASML Holding N.V. that is +24.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ASML Holding N.V. grew +18.5 % a year. The price currently implies +24.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ASML Holding N.V. (+24.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow ASML Holding N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASML Holding N.V. it is €1,345 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of €1,407. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASML Holding N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, ASML trades above its calculated fair value: price €1,407, fair value €1,345, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1,407); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1,345). For ASML Holding N.V. the two are €62.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASML Holding N.V. worth?
The market values ASML Holding N.V. at about €543B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is €1,407; our models calculate a fair value of €1,345 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASML?
Our models span a range for ASML Holding N.V.: cautious scenario €860.98, base €1,345, optimistic €1,749 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price €1,407). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASML?
ASML Holding N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.2 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1,345 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 35.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 27.7, P/S 13.8, EV/EBITDA 32.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ASML?
The PEG ratio of ASML Holding N.V. is 1.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASML Holding N.V. (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 65.6%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASML from its 52-week high?
ASML Holding N.V. trades at €1,407, about 18% below its 52-week high of €1,719 and 70% above the low of €830.05 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1,345 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASML Holding N.V.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Lam Research Corporation, Applied Materials, Inc, KLA Corporation, Teradyne, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASML Holding N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price €1,407, calculated fair value €1,345 (−4%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASML calculated?
We run ASML Holding N.V. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1,345, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. ASML Holding N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was €1,407. Our model-based fair value is €1,345, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASML Holding N.V. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€860.98 to €1,749) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) come from?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding N.V. grew +23.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +20.0 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ASML Holding N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The market capitalisation of ASML Holding N.V. is €543B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASML Holding N.V. is 13.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding N.V. are €34.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The dividend yield of ASML Holding N.V. is 0.5% (payout 18.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The net margin of ASML Holding N.V. is 34.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASML Holding N.V. is 65.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASML Holding N.V. is 20.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
The operating margin of ASML Holding N.V. is 44.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Revenue at ASML Holding N.V. is growing +55.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding N.V. are growing +136% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) hold?
ASML Holding N.V. holds more cash than debt, €10.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 24, 2026