Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $9.4B · ISIN US01973R1014
What is Allison Transmission Holdings Inc really worth?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc
ALSN · US
A solid business, but trading 11% above our fair value of $115.47.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +4.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($71.46 to $170.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.30 – $135.66 · fair‑value band $71.46 – $170.06 · the $128.44 price screens above the $115.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) currently trades at $128.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $115.47, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $130.82 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $128.44 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $14.42, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc generated revenue of $3.6B at a net margin of 14.9%. Revenue grew 83.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.4%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $71.46 (bear case) to $170.06 (bull case); at $128.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −10%, ALSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.61 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($130.82) versus Dividend Discount ($14.42). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide.
Full company description
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. It offers transmissions for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school and transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction of off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company also provides its transmissions and electric propulsion solutions under the Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under the ReTran brand name. In addition, it sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its solutions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $623M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +8.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALSN screens 11% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heavy Transportation Equipment Stocks Q2 In Review: Allison Transmission (NYSE:ALSN) Vs Peers
- 3 Reasons We Love Allison Transmission (ALSN)
- Allison Transmission (ALSN) Stock Looks Cheap on Earnings but Tested by a 258% Run
- Allison Transmission’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 640 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY | $88.50 | $47.50 | −46% |
| AutoZone, Inc AZO | $2,932 | $2,287 | −22% |
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 450,500 KRW | 643,909 KRW | +43% |
| Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 | ¥57.67 | ¥84.47 | +46% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹165.30 | ₹80.63 | −51% |
| Magna International Inc MGA | $65.57 | $68.17 | +4% |
| Genuine Parts Company GPC | $137.51 | $58.07 | −58% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹48,700 | ₹11,534 | −76% |
| Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 | ¥45.82 | ¥28.28 | −38% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,063 | ₹393.20 | −81% |
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