Alior Bank S.A (ALR) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 17.4B PLN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 235.70 PLN to 184.51 PLN (−21.7%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price −5.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 40% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (138.39 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.67 PLN – 143.70 PLN · fair‑value band 138.39 PLN – 230.64 PLN · the 131.95 PLN price screens below the 184.51 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Alior Bank S.A (ALR) currently trades at 131.95 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 184.51 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 39.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alior Bank S.A generated revenue of 5.7B PLN at a net margin of 40.0%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 766M PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 138.39 PLN (bear case) to 230.64 PLN (bull case); at 131.95 PLN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at 40%, ALR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (157.30 PLN) versus Asset-Based (66.63 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities.
Full company description
Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities. It offers retail products, including cash loans, credit cards, current account overdraft facilities, and mortgage loans; term and savings deposits; brokerage products and investment funds; personal accounts; cash deposits, withdrawals, and transfers; and currency exchange transactions. The company also provides corporate products, such as overdraft limits in current accounts, working capital loans, investment loans, and credit cards; current and subsidiary accounts; term deposits; cash deposits and withdrawals and transfers; FX exchange transactions; derivative instruments; and leasing and factoring. In addition, it offers bills, trade finance, internet banking, and operating and financial leasing services, as well as issues commercial bonds. In addition, it offers retirement pension products and investments fund services, as well as operates currency trading platforms. Further, it provides stock broking, financial advisory, intermediation, and other financial services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alior Bank S.A reported revenue of 6.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B PLN in FY2025, compounding +48.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $365.18 | $217.97 | -40% |
| Bank of America Corporation BOFA | C$31.78 | C$18.89 | -41% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.24 | ¥18.21 | +78% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.52 | ¥14.44 | +92% |
| HSBC Holdings HBCN | 1,610 MXN | 1,364 MXN | -15% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.56 | ¥12.94 | +97% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.83 | ¥11.24 | +93% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 55.29 PLN | 31.78 PLN | -43% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 565.49 MXN | -40% |
| Barclays PLC BCSN | 475.00 MXN | 332.60 MXN | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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