Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 2.6T CNY (≈ $395B) · ISIN CNE000001P37
What is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of ¥14.44.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +8.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥10.83). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.22 · fair‑value band ¥10.83 – ¥18.05 · the ¥8.13 price screens below the ¥14.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) currently trades at ¥8.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.44, implying the stock looks roughly 43.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥13.44 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥8.13 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.95, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd generated revenue of 673B CNY at a net margin of 55.2%. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at 6.6T CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥10.83 (bear case) to ¥18.05 (bull case); at ¥8.13, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 78%, 601398 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.4756 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥13.44) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.95). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.
Full company description
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers. The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities. In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd reported revenue of 1.5T CNY in FY2025 versus 658B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.8%/yr. Reported net income was 369B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights SpaceX, United Health, The Goldman Sachs and Industrial and Commercial Bank
- Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (SEHK:1398) Tests Repo Based Loans, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $132.90 | $117.65 | −11% |
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