Agricultural Bank of China Ltd Class A (601288) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 2.2T CNY (≈ $326B) · ISIN CNE100000RJ0
What is Agricultural Bank of China Ltd Class A really worth?
A solid business, trading 46% below our fair value of ¥12.94.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +7.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥9.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.53 – ¥8.59 · fair‑value band ¥9.71 – ¥16.17 · the ¥6.96 price screens below the ¥12.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd Class A (601288) currently trades at ¥6.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.94, implying the stock looks roughly 46.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥12.19 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥6.96 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.79, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd Class A generated revenue of 601B CNY at a net margin of 49.0%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 309B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.71 (bear case) to ¥16.17 (bull case); at ¥6.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 86%, 601288 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.3654 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥12.19) versus Asset-Based (¥6.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments.
Full company description
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans and advances, trade finance, deposit products, corporate wealth management services, and other corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit products, card business, and other personal intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment conducts money market and repurchase transactions, debt instruments investments, precious metals transactions, and derivative transactions. It offers asset and fund management, financial leasing, life insurance, and investment banking services. It also provides inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, digital and online financial services, and cross-border financial solutions, as well as services for rural revitalization. In addition, it provides demand, personal call, foreign currency call and time, time or demand optional, savings, agreed-term, and negotiated deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and loans, including housing, consumer, personal auto, business, fixed asset, working capital, real estate, bonds, commercial drafts, entrusted syndicated loans, trade finances, guarantees and commitments, and loans with custody of export rebates accounts. In addition, it offers credit and debit cards, payment and settlement, private banking, cash management, custody, financial market, financial institution services, and trading. Further, it offers agro-related personal and corporate banking products and services; telephone, mobile, self-service, and SMS banking services; asset custodian services; and reinsurance. The company operates domestic and overseas branches, and representative offices. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Agricultural Bank of China Ltd Class A reported revenue of 724B CNY in FY2025 versus 556B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 291B CNY in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $132.90 | $117.65 | −11% |
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