HSBC Holdings (HBCN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · MX · Market cap 5.5T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 1,480 MXN to 1,364 MXN (−7.9%) since Jul 18, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 394.57 MXN – 1,610 MXN · fair‑value band 1,023 MXN – 1,705 MXN · the 1,610 MXN price screens above the 1,364 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HSBC Holdings (HBCN) currently trades at 1,610 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,364 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HSBC Holdings generated revenue of 63.8B MXN at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at 57.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,023 MXN (bear case) to 1,705 MXN (bull case); at 1,610 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 78% fair-value upside, at -15%, HBCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (80.92 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (37.44 MXN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
Full company description
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HSBC Holdings reported revenue of 66.2B MXN in FY2025 versus 63.6B MXN in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 22.3B MXN in FY2025, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2021.
HBCN screens 15% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HSBC Stock Rises as $10.1 Billion Profit Restarts Buybacks
- HSBC HOLDINGS PLC ANNOUNCES INCREASE OF (A) THE MAXIMUM TENDER AMOUNT OF ITS TENDER OFFERS FOR FOUR SERIES OF NOTES AND (B) THE MAY 2028 NOT
- HSBC Stock Stalls as $1 Billion Buyback Disappoints Investors
- Prudential, HSBC Shares Tumble on China Insurance Tax Report
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $365.18 | $217.97 | -40% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $64.81 | $50.87 | -22% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.24 | ¥18.21 | +78% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.52 | ¥14.44 | +92% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.56 | ¥12.94 | +97% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.83 | ¥11.24 | +93% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 55.29 PLN | 31.78 PLN | -43% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 565.49 MXN | -40% |
| Barclays PLC BCSN | 475.00 MXN | 332.60 MXN | -30% |
| Bank of Communications Co 601328 | ¥6.91 | ¥13.82 | +100% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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