Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$12.2B (≈ $8.8B) · ISIN NZAIAE0002S6
What is Auckland International Airport Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 155% above our fair value of A$2.76.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from A$2.77 to A$2.76 (−0.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.78 to A$3.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.02 – A$8.07 · fair‑value band A$1.78 – A$3.73 · the A$7.03 price screens above the A$2.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Auckland International Airport Ltd (AIA) currently trades at A$7.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 154.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$4.43 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$7.03 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.03, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Auckland International Airport Ltd generated revenue of A$982M at a net margin of 41.8%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.0%. Net debt stands at A$1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.78 (bear case) to A$3.73 (bull case); at A$7.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −61%, AIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.0650 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$4.43) versus Economic Profit (A$1.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Auckland International Airport Limited provides airport facilities, supporting infrastructure, and aeronautical services in New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Aeronautical, Retail and Carparking, and Property.
Full company description
Auckland International Airport Limited provides airport facilities, supporting infrastructure, and aeronautical services in New Zealand. The company operates through three segments: Aeronautical, Retail and Carparking, and Property. The Aeronautical segment provides services that facilitate the movement of aircraft, passengers, and cargo, as well as utility services, which support the airport; and leases space for facilities, such as terminals. The Retail and Carparking segment offers services to the retailers within the terminals; and car parking facilities for passengers, visitors, and airport staff. The Property segment leases space on airport land outside the terminals, including cargo buildings, hangars, and stand-alone investment properties. The company was founded in 1966 and is based in Manukau, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Auckland International Airport Ltd reported revenue of 929M NZD in FY2025 versus 268M NZD in FY2021, a compound +36.4%/yr. Reported net income was 421M NZD in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.3 % · buybacks/dilution −2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AIA screens 155% overvalued. Compare with Aena S.M.E., S.A →
Peer Group
Airports & Air Services · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airports & Air Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aena S.M.E., S.A AENA | €26.42 | €26.90 | +2% |
| Airports of Thailand Public Company TATD | 2.58 SGD | 1.25 SGD | −52% |
| Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A. PAC | $214.87 | $253.64 | +18% |
| GMR Airports Limited GMRINFRA | ₹102.70 | ₹22.29 | −78% |
| Shanghai International Airport Co 600009 | ¥23.41 | ¥17.09 | −27% |
| Flughafen Zürich AG FHZN | CHF 208.80 | CHF 121.30 | −42% |
| Fraport AG FRA | €62.40 | €49.83 | −20% |
| Københavns Lufthavne A/S KBHL | kr 5,440 | kr 1,821 | −67% |
| SATS Ltd S58 | 4.07 SGD | 4.03 SGD | −1% |
| Flughafen Wien Aktiengesellschaft, FLU | €53.00 | €46.33 | −13% |
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