Apple Inc (AAPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Apple Inc $347, price $343, upside +1.1%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $122.93 – $342.96 · fair‑value band $204.78 – $465.94 · the $342.96 price screens below the $346.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
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Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide.
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The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories.
It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms.
In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property.
The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store.
The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007.
Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
Stock analysis
Apple Inc (AAPL) currently trades at $342.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $346.58, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $197.32 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $342.96 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $98.78, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $204.78 (bear) to $465.94 (bull), the price of $342.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Apple Inc reported revenue of $416B in FY2025 versus $366B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $112B in FY2025, compounding +4.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1T · P/E ratio 39.4 · P/S ratio 10.6 · EPS (TTM) $8.70 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 149% · Return on assets (EBIT) 33.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 1%, AAPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$204.78Fair Value $346.58Bull$465.94
Price $342.96 · Upside +1.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.65 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.9% vs 13.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.2% a year for the price and +8.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Strong ecosystem and brand deliver durable advantages in pricing and operations while absent insider buying and modest ownership leave alignment signals limited.
Main risk: Reliance on a narrow group of contract manufacturers creates concentration that could impair production continuity and operating margins.
Apple has reached an agreement to hire team members from the defunct AI podcast startup Huxe and license its technology. The move brings in expertise from developers who previously worked on Google's NotebookLM audio features. Will these targeted acquisitions accelerate Apple's own AI audio offerings more than they expose the company to the risks of integrating scattered external teams?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+1.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)148.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets31.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.06× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Apple Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAPL
Frequently asked questions
Is Apple Inc (AAPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $346.58 versus a price of $342.96, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AAPL?
Our model-based fair value for Apple Inc is $346.58 (as of Oct 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $342.96.
What is the quality score of AAPL?
Apple Inc has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $346.58 (as of Oct 15, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $204.78, optimistic scenario $465.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apple Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $346.58, about +1% upside versus a price of $342.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $204.78, optimistic scenario $465.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Apple Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $467B (latest available figure, as of Oct 15, 2026).
Does Apple Inc pay a dividend?
Apple Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 15, 2026).
What growth is priced into Apple Inc (AAPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Apple Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Oct 15, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAPL use?
Our models discount Apple Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Apple Inc that is +25.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Apple Inc (AAPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Apple Inc grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +25.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Apple Inc (AAPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Apple Inc (+25.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.95 %: that much free cash flow Apple Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Apple Inc it is $346.58 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026), against a price of $342.96. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Apple Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, AAPL trades below its calculated fair value: price $342.96, fair value $346.58, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($342.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($346.58). For Apple Inc the two are $3.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Apple Inc worth?
The market values Apple Inc at about $5.1T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 15, 2026). Per share that is $342.96; our models calculate a fair value of $346.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAPL?
Our models span a range for Apple Inc: cautious scenario $204.78, base $346.58, optimistic $465.94 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026, price $342.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AAPL?
Apple Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.4 (as of Oct 15, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $346.58 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 31.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/S 10.8, EV/EBITDA 30.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AAPL?
The PEG ratio of Apple Inc is 2.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 15, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Apple Inc (as of Oct 15, 2026): return on equity 148.8%, debt of 1.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAPL from its 52-week high?
Apple Inc trades at $342.96, at its 52-week high of $342.96 and 39% above the low of $246.24 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $346.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Apple Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, Xiaomi Corporation, LG Electronics Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Apple Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 15, 2026: price $342.96, calculated fair value $346.58 (+1%), Quality Score 82/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAPL calculated?
We run Apple Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $346.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Apple Inc currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $342.96. Our model-based fair value is $346.58, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Apple Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($204.78 to $465.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Apple Inc (AAPL) come from?
Earnings per share at Apple Inc grew +14.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Apple Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The market capitalisation of Apple Inc is $5.1T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Apple Inc is 10.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Earnings per share at Apple Inc are $8.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The dividend yield of Apple Inc is 0.3% (payout 12.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The net margin of Apple Inc is 26.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Apple Inc is 149% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Apple Inc is 33.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Apple Inc (AAPL)?
The operating margin of Apple Inc is 32.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Revenue at Apple Inc is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Apple Inc (AAPL)?
Earnings per share at Apple Inc are growing +28.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Apple Inc (AAPL) carry?
The net debt of Apple Inc is $76.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 15, 2026