Xiaomi Corp (1810) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Xiaomi Corp HK$44.40, price HK$26.58, upside +67.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$8.45 – HK$60.15 · fair‑value band HK$25.65 – HK$60.99 · the HK$26.58 price screens below the HK$44.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Xiaomi Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sales of smartphones in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Smartphones, IoT and Lifestyle Products, Internet Services, and smart electric vehicles segments.
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Xiaomi Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sales of smartphones in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Smartphones, IoT and Lifestyle Products, Internet Services, and smart electric vehicles segments. The company also offers internet of things (IoT) and lifestyle products comprising smart large home appliances, smart TVs, tablets, wearables and other IoT and lifestyle products; hardware repairment services for products; installation services for certain IoT products; and sale of materials. In addition, it provides internet services, such as advertising, online game, and fintech services; and development, manufacture, and sales of smart electric vehicles. Further, the company in the wholesale and retail of smartphones and ecosystem partners' products; investment activities; sales of smart hardware; software and hardware development; procurement and sales of smartphones, ecosystem partners' products and spare parts, and raw materials; operation of retail stores; and commercial factoring and e-commerce business. Additionally, it provides intra-group capital supervision, collection, remittance, credit guarantee, and interest rate risk management; customer; software related; promotion; electronic payment technology; and technical services. Xiaomi Corporation was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xiaomi Corp (1810) currently trades at HK$26.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$44.40, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$50.41 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$26.58 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.68, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$25.65 (bear) to HK$60.99 (bull), the price of HK$26.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xiaomi Corp reported revenue of 457B CNY in FY2025 versus 328B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 41.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$710B (≈ $90.5B) · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.27 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% · Operating margin 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1810 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$25.65Fair Value HK$44.40Bull HK$60.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.9348 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 51%, slowing
2025 sits 126% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +11.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 128 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+67% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xiaomi Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1810
Frequently asked questions
Is Xiaomi Corp (1810) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$44.40 versus a price of HK$26.58, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1810?
Our model-based fair value for Xiaomi Corp is HK$44.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$26.58.
What is the quality score of 1810?
Xiaomi Corp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$44.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$25.65, optimistic scenario HK$60.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiaomi Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$44.40, about +67% upside versus a price of HK$26.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$25.65, optimistic scenario HK$60.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Xiaomi Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 445B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xiaomi Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1810 use?
Our models discount Xiaomi Corp at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xiaomi Corp that is +11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xiaomi Corp (1810) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xiaomi Corp grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xiaomi Corp (1810) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xiaomi Corp (+11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.52 %: that much free cash flow Xiaomi Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiaomi Corp it is HK$44.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$26.58. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xiaomi Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1810 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$26.58, fair value HK$44.40, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1810?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$26.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$44.40). For Xiaomi Corp the two are HK$17.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiaomi Corp worth?
The market values Xiaomi Corp at about HK$710B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$26.58; our models calculate a fair value of HK$44.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1810?
Our models span a range for Xiaomi Corp: cautious scenario HK$25.65, base HK$44.40, optimistic HK$60.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$26.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1810?
Xiaomi Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$44.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 2.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 17.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 1810?
The PEG ratio of Xiaomi Corp is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xiaomi Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1810 from its 52-week high?
Xiaomi Corp trades at HK$26.58, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$59.45 and 24% above the low of HK$21.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$44.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiaomi Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, LG Electronics Inc, Huaqin Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiaomi Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$26.58, calculated fair value HK$44.40 (+67%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1810 calculated?
We run Xiaomi Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$44.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiaomi Corp currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$26.58. Our model-based fair value is HK$44.40, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xiaomi Corp right now?
Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$25.65 to HK$60.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Xiaomi Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The market capitalisation of Xiaomi Corp is HK$710B (≈ $90.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiaomi Corp is 1.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Earnings per share at Xiaomi Corp are HK$1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The net margin of Xiaomi Corp is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiaomi Corp is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiaomi Corp is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
The operating margin of Xiaomi Corp is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Revenue at Xiaomi Corp is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xiaomi Corp (1810)?
Earnings per share at Xiaomi Corp are growing −58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Xiaomi Corp (1810) carry?
The net debt of Xiaomi Corp is 4.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026