Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · ID · Market cap 65.6T IDR (≈ $6.6B)

What is Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (12,371 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (21 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range 5,085 IDR – 11,250 IDR · fair‑value band 12,371 IDR – 22,027 IDR · the 11,250 IDR price screens below the 16,945 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) currently trades at 11,250 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,945 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 33.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 16,483 IDR per share, and 17 of the 20 models we run sit above the 11,250 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4,552 IDR, and 3 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 4.9B IDR at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.9. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 12,371 IDR (bear case) to 22,027 IDR (bull case); at 11,250 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 51%, AADI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1,107 IDR per share, which is 6.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (16,483 IDR) versus Asset-Based (4,552 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations.

Full company description

PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations. In addition, it engages in construction, operation, and maintenance of drinking water supply system; mine water pumping and processing services; water treatment; water solution services; and lease of powerplant and supporting activities. Further, the company is involved in forestry business; port; manufacture, repair, and maintenance of sea transportation; trading, handling, and barging of coal; sea transportation; and investment activities, as well as provision of terminal handling and mining support services. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $760M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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