PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ID · Market cap 65.6T IDR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 15,951 IDR to 14,480 IDR (−9.2%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (10,582 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (20 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range 5,085 IDR – 11,001 IDR · fair‑value band 10,582 IDR – 18,750 IDR · the 9,050 IDR price screens below the 14,480 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) currently trades at 9,050 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14,480 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk generated revenue of 4.9B IDR at a net margin of 15.5%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 5.5. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 10,582 IDR (bear case) to 18,750 IDR (bull case); at 9,050 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at 60%, AADI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (16,627 IDR) versus Asset-Based (4,592 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations.
Full company description
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk engages in the coal mining activities. The company is also involved in the logistics business which includes coal barging and transshipment, fuel oil transportation and management, river channel management and dredging, multipurpose terminal and stockpile management, stevedoring, and shipyard operations. In addition, it engages in construction, operation, and maintenance of drinking water supply system; mine water pumping and processing services; water treatment; water solution services; and lease of powerplant and supporting activities. Further, the company is involved in forestry business; port; manufacture, repair, and maintenance of sea transportation; trading, handling, and barging of coal; sea transportation; and investment activities, as well as provision of terminal handling and mining support services. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk reported revenue of 4.9B IDR in FY2025 versus 3.9B IDR in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was 760M IDR in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥44.07 | ¥34.97 | -21% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | -70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | -5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥22.09 | ¥13.24 | -40% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹409.30 | ₹464.01 | +13% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | -0% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | -22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,520 IDR | 3,037 IDR | +21% |
| Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group 000983 | ¥6.76 | ¥3.60 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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