Pop Mart International Group (9992) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$203B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 48% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (88/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The model range is unusually wide (HK$127.88 to HK$419.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$9.80 – HK$329.56 · fair‑value band HK$127.88 – HK$419.60 · the HK$154.10 price screens below the HK$227.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Pop Mart International Group (9992) currently trades at HK$154.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$227.30, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pop Mart International Group generated revenue of HK$37.1B at a net margin of 34.4%. Revenue grew 174.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 77.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$10.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$127.88 (bear case) to HK$419.60 (bull case); at HK$154.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 48%, 9992 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$437.78) versus Asset-Based (HK$11.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes.
Full company description
Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes. It sells its products through a network of retail stores and roboshops; online channels, including Tmall flagship store, DouYin, Pop Draw, and other online channels; and wholesale channels and others. The company also provides internet technology, customer, and technology development services; and operates playgrounds, as well as engages in investment and exhibition activities. Pop Mart International Group Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pop Mart International Group reported revenue of HK$36.2B in FY2025 versus HK$4.5B in FY2021, a compound +68.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$12.4B in FY2025, compounding +95.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- LABUBU Takes Over NYC, POP MART Celebrates THE MONSTERS With 10th Anniversary Exhibition
- Pop Mart Defends Overseas Growth After $28 Billion Market Value Wipeout
- Pop Mart Suffers $33 Billion Rout as Labubu Craze Unravels
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$72.80 | HK$119.82 | +65% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $33.03 | $16.16 | -51% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $94.89 | $81.97 | -14% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $43.81 | $15.61 | -64% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥44.94 | ¥39.73 | -12% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.59 | HK$29.45 | +102% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 158.70 | kr 96.65 | -39% |
| Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A SMFT3 | R$17.25 | R$22.90 | +33% |
| Songcheng Performance Development Co 300144 | ¥6.17 | ¥6.85 | +11% |
| Thule Group THULE | kr 213.40 | kr 142.22 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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