Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$2.1T (≈ $264B) · ISIN KYG017191142
What is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 17% below our fair value of HK$132.03.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from HK$73.35 to HK$132.03 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −14.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$58.80 – HK$221.61 · fair‑value band HK$97.00 – HK$167.08 · the HK$110.10 price screens below the HK$132.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) currently trades at HK$110.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$132.03, implying the stock looks roughly 16.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$237.16 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$110.10 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$15.24, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.0T at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$86.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$97.00 (bear case) to HK$167.08 (bull case); at HK$110.10, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at 20%, 9988 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$1.00 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$237.16) versus Economic Profit (HK$15.24). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
Notify me when 9988 reaches fair value
Put 9988 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2026 versus 853B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was 104B CNY in FY2026, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +27.4 % · buybacks/dilution +4.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 9988: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alibaba's $178 Billion One-Hour Market Still Lacks a Profit Scoreboard I
- Top Analyst Reports for Amazon, AbbVie & Alibaba
- E-Commerce Update - Alibaba Lawsuit Highlights Regulatory Challenges For Global Companies
- Alibaba (BABA) Report Flags AI Data Center Bottlenecks Shaping Its Next Investment Phase
Peer Group
Internet Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $256.26 | $127.67 | −50% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $85.69 | $225.48 | +163% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,966 | $798.98 | −59% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $222.00 | $38.64 | −83% |
| Sea Limited SE | $118.32 | $52.70 | −55% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $105.62 | $60.13 | −43% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.32 | $2.79 | −83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €37.05 | €12.71 | −66% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $99.27 | $11.46 | −88% |
Compare Alibaba Group Holding Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 9988?
What is the quality score of 9988?
What is the revenue of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988)?
What is the net profit margin of 9988?
Does Alibaba Group Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
Watch Alibaba Group Holding Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Alibaba Group Holding Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.