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NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC (9899) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$19.5B (≈ $2.5B)

What is NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC really worth?

NC NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC 9899 · HK
PriceHK$90.35
Fair ValueHK$162.86
Upside+80.3%
Quality69/100

A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of HK$162.86.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 35.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
✓Wide moat 76/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.6 %/yr)
!Weak on future: 7 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$118.63 – HK$199.77

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price −28.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$118.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$302.40 HK$53.15 Fair Value HK$162.86 Dec 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range HK$53.15 – HK$302.40 · fair‑value band HK$118.63 – HK$199.77 · the HK$90.35 price screens below the HK$162.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC (9899) currently trades at HK$90.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$162.86, implying the stock looks roughly 44.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$235.65 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$90.35 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$42.14, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC generated revenue of HK$7.8B at a net margin of 35.4%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$118.63 (bear case) to HK$199.77 (bull case); at HK$90.35, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 80%, 9899 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$5.99 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$111.44 HK$179.28 HK$291.40 79
Growth DCF HK$111.68 HK$176.36 HK$281.87 77
Owner Earnings HK$179.86 HK$295.94 HK$487.80 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$111.44 HK$179.28 HK$291.40 79
Owner Earnings HK$179.86 HK$295.94 HK$487.80 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$94.07 HK$145.40 HK$212.86 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$90.80 HK$138.90 HK$196.76 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$181.75 HK$319.41 HK$472.91 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$96.88 HK$146.71 HK$218.40 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$97.10 HK$142.05 HK$205.40 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$156.47 HK$271.51 HK$428.26 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$91.29 HK$368.06 HK$500.63 64
Lynch FV HK$91.81 HK$131.16 HK$170.50 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$91.81 HK$131.16 HK$170.50 57
EPV HK$59.15 HK$66.47 HK$72.87 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$221.50 HK$295.34 HK$369.17 63
P/S Multiple HK$99.50 HK$132.66 HK$165.83 58
P/B Multiple HK$165.09 HK$220.12 HK$275.15 55
EV/EBIT HK$110.31 HK$142.00 HK$173.70 66
EV/EBITDA HK$87.10 HK$111.05 HK$135.01 67
EV/Revenue HK$87.34 HK$118.24 HK$149.14 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$31.45 HK$42.14 HK$62.89 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$111.68 HK$176.36 HK$281.87 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$94.07 HK$144.94 HK$207.94 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$88.46 HK$117.75 HK$522.41 58
ROIC Compounder HK$59.15 HK$69.99 HK$87.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$164.96 HK$235.65 HK$306.35 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$235.65) versus Asset-Based (HK$42.14). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.3 as of Aug 25, 2026
P/S ratio 2.59 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$8.85 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3
Net margin 35.4% FY2025
Return on equity 23.8% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 19.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$7.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.4% 3y avg −4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$1.6B FY2025
Net cash HK$3.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 72
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

NetEase Cloud Music Inc., an investment holding company, engages in the operation of online platforms to provide music and social entertainment services in the People's Republic of China. It operates NetEase Cloud Music, an online music platform.

Full company description

NetEase Cloud Music Inc., an investment holding company, engages in the operation of online platforms to provide music and social entertainment services in the People's Republic of China. It operates NetEase Cloud Music, an online music platform. The company also offers ancillary and social entertainment products, such as LOOK Live Streaming, Sheng Bo, and Yin Jie; membership subscription; sublicensing of contents royalties; and online advertising services on its online platforms, as well as sells digital music album and songs, and virtual items in social entertainment platforms operating. In addition, it provides online music streaming services. The company was formerly known as Cloud Music Inc. and changed its name to NetEase Cloud Music Inc. in November 2024. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. NetEase Cloud Music Inc. is a subsidiary of NetEase, Inc.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC reported revenue of 7.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$7.8B
Latest YoY
−2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.0%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+54.9% (54.9 + 0.0)
Revenue +2.6%/yr
FY21 7.0B CNY
FY22 9.0B CNY
FY23 7.9B CNY
FY24 8.0B CNY
FY25 7.8B CNY
Net income
FY21 −2.1B CNY
FY22 −221M CNY
FY23 734M CNY
FY24 1.6B CNY
FY25 2.7B CNY

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NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC · Fair Value
HK$162.86 +45%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9899

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 153 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +80% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.51× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.51× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 5.89× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 0
FUTURE7 · sector 31
PAST95 · sector 9
HEALTH100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND0 · sector 36

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL $340.65 $145.14 −57%
Meta Platforms, Inc META $571.10 $534.91 −6%
Tencent Holdings 0700 HK$455.20 HK$449.03 −1%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT $547.51 $211.87 −61%
Reddit, Inc RDDT $153.29 $39.59 −74%
Baidu, Inc 89888 HK$79.10 HK$28.84 −64%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 81024 HK$34.50 HK$63.28 +83%
NAVER Corporation 035420 213,500 KRW 231,585 KRW +8%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698 HK$35.14 HK$66.77 +90%
REA Group REA A$177.42 A$88.53 −50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC (9899) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$162.86 versus a price of HK$90.35, about +80% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9899?
Our model-based fair value for NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC is HK$162.86 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$90.35.
What is the quality score of 9899?
NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC (9899)?
NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9899?
The net profit margin of NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC is about 35.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 35.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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