NetEase Cloud Music Inc (9899) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$22.2B

NC NetEase Cloud Music Inc 9899 · HK

PriceHK$117.50

Fair ValueHK$162.62

Upside+38.4%

Quality69/100

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Mixed Growth

Highly profitable · 35.4% net margin

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Ranks above peers (10/14)

Wide moat 76/100

Evidence: High Range HK$118.43 – HK$199.47 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$162.48 to HK$162.62 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 38% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Our model range runs from HK$118.43 (bear) to HK$199.47 (bull), base HK$162.62. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range HK$53.15 – HK$302.40 · fair‑value band HK$118.43 – HK$199.47 · the HK$117.50 price screens below the HK$162.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

NetEase Cloud Music Inc (9899) currently trades at HK$117.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$162.62, implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, NetEase Cloud Music Inc generated revenue of HK$7.8B at a net margin of 35.4%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$118.43 (bear case) to HK$199.47 (bull case); at HK$117.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 38%, 9899 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF HK$111.68 HK$176.36 HK$281.87 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$94.07 HK$144.94 HK$207.94 74

ROIC Compounder HK$59.15 HK$69.99 HK$87.24 72

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$111.44 HK$179.28 HK$291.40 38

Owner Earnings HK$179.86 HK$295.94 HK$487.80 31

5Y Revenue Exit HK$94.07 HK$145.40 HK$212.86 39

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$90.80 HK$138.90 HK$196.76 41

5Y P/E Exit HK$181.75 HK$319.41 HK$472.91 38

10Y Revenue Exit HK$96.88 HK$146.71 HK$218.40 36

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$97.10 HK$142.05 HK$205.40 37

10Y P/E Exit HK$156.47 HK$271.51 HK$428.26 35

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$91.29 HK$368.06 HK$500.63 54

Lynch FV HK$91.81 HK$131.16 HK$170.50 50

PEG = 1.0 HK$91.81 HK$131.16 HK$170.50 46

EPV HK$59.15 HK$66.47 HK$72.87 59

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$221.50 HK$295.34 HK$369.17 63

P/S Multiple HK$99.50 HK$132.66 HK$165.83 58

P/B Multiple HK$165.09 HK$220.12 HK$275.15 55

EV/EBIT HK$110.31 HK$142.00 HK$173.70 53

EV/EBITDA HK$87.10 HK$111.05 HK$135.01 54

EV/Revenue HK$87.34 HK$118.24 HK$149.14 43

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$31.45 HK$42.14 HK$62.89 50

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$111.68 HK$176.36 HK$281.87 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$94.07 HK$144.94 HK$207.94 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$88.46 HK$117.75 HK$522.41 61

ROIC Compounder HK$59.15 HK$69.99 HK$87.24 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$164.96 HK$235.65 HK$306.35 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$235.65) versus Asset-Based (HK$42.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$7.8B

Revenue growth (YoY) +1.4%

Net margin 35.4%

Return on equity 23.8%

Free cash flow HK$1.6B FY2025

P/E ratio 7.3 as of Jul 3, 2026

More key figures

Operating margin 19.5%

EPS (TTM) HK$8.85

EPS growth (YoY) +13.2%

Net cash HK$3.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 66

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 56

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 66

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 93

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 45

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 44

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 13

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 4

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 72

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Full company description

NetEase Cloud Music Inc., an investment holding company, engages in the operation of online platforms to provide music and social entertainment services in the People's Republic of China. It operates NetEase Cloud Music, an online music platform. The company also offers ancillary and social entertainment products, such as LOOK Live Streaming, Sheng Bo, and Yin Jie; membership subscription; sublicensing of contents royalties; and online advertising services on its online platforms, as well as sells digital music album and songs, and virtual items in social entertainment platforms operating. In addition, it provides online music streaming services. The company was formerly known as Cloud Music Inc. and changed its name to NetEase Cloud Music Inc. in November 2024. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. NetEase Cloud Music Inc. is a subsidiary of NetEase, Inc.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

NetEase Cloud Music Inc reported revenue of HK$7.8B in FY2025 versus HK$7.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.7B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 84/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$7.8B

Latest YoY

−2.4%

Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−4.8%

Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+9.6%

Avg. growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+29.0%

Revenue +2.6%/yr

FY21 HK$7.0B

FY22 HK$9.0B

FY23 HK$7.9B

FY24 HK$8.0B

FY25 HK$7.8B

Net income

FY21 −HK$2.1B

FY22 −HK$221M

FY23 HK$734M

FY24 HK$1.6B

FY25 HK$2.7B

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NetEase Cloud Music Inc · Fair Value
HK$162.62 +38%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9899" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">NetEase Cloud Music Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$162.62</b> <span style="color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+38%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NetEase Cloud Music Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9899

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 154 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +38% · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 24% · Top 25%

Return on assets 7% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%

Revenue growth 1% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 1.72× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.86× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 1.8× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 11.8× · Cheaper than median

PEG 5.89× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 85 · sector 0

FUTURE 7 · sector 31

PAST 95 · sector 10

HEALTH 100 · sector 99

DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL	$343.54	$145.14	-58%
Meta Platforms, Inc META	$578.85	$534.91	-8%
Tencent Holdings 0700	HK$461.60	HK$448.17	-3%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT	$489.60	$210.99	-57%
Reddit, Inc RDDT	$153.45	$39.59	-74%
Baidu, Inc BIDU	$104.84	$66.96	-36%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024	HK$41.54	HK$84.61	+104%
NAVER Corporation 035420	215,500 KRW	231,585 KRW	+7%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698	HK$33.72	HK$66.60	+98%
Kakao Corp 035720	40,100 KRW	24,536 KRW	-39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is NetEase Cloud Music Inc (9899) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$162.62 versus a price of HK$117.50, about +38% (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 9899?

Our model-based fair value for NetEase Cloud Music Inc is HK$162.62 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$117.50.

What is the quality score of 9899?

NetEase Cloud Music Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of NetEase Cloud Music Inc (9899)?

NetEase Cloud Music Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9899?

The net profit margin of NetEase Cloud Music Inc is about 35.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 35.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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