Bilibili Inc (9626) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · HK · Market cap HK$55.7B

BI Bilibili Inc 9626 · HK

PriceHK$134.90

Fair ValueHK$59.96

Upside-55.6%

Quality59/100

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Healthy Growth

Thin margins · 4.6% net margin

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Mixed vs. peers (7/14)

Narrow moat 37/100

Evidence: High Range HK$48.38 – HK$71.19 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$67.20 to HK$59.96 (−10.8%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$71.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$67.90 – HK$979.00 · fair‑value band HK$48.38 – HK$71.19 · the HK$134.90 price screens above the HK$59.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Bilibili Inc (9626) currently trades at HK$134.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$59.96, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Bilibili Inc generated revenue of HK$30.8B at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$48.38 (bear case) to HK$71.19 (bull case); at HK$134.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -56%, 9626 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF HK$206.47 HK$393.26 HK$699.33 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$96.28 HK$133.67 HK$213.88 74

ROIC Compounder HK$41.76 HK$51.83 HK$61.61 72

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$218.46 HK$334.10 HK$702.37 38

Owner Earnings HK$70.65 HK$139.32 HK$283.50 31

5Y Revenue Exit HK$90.17 HK$118.58 HK$175.93 39

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$122.26 HK$183.47 HK$302.73 41

5Y P/E Exit HK$104.64 HK$176.13 HK$267.22 38

10Y Revenue Exit HK$127.62 HK$201.61 HK$230.34 36

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$152.06 HK$270.71 HK$462.39 37

10Y P/E Exit HK$139.20 HK$232.76 HK$371.89 35

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$17.81 HK$124.17 HK$174.25 54

Lynch FV HK$63.73 HK$91.04 HK$118.35 50

PEG = 1.0 HK$63.73 HK$91.04 HK$118.35 46

EPV HK$37.95 HK$41.48 HK$44.56 59

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$43.20 HK$57.60 HK$72.01 63

P/S Multiple HK$33.38 HK$44.51 HK$55.64 58

P/B Multiple HK$33.38 HK$44.51 HK$55.64 55

EV/EBIT HK$46.41 HK$56.28 HK$66.15 53

EV/EBITDA HK$83.35 HK$105.53 HK$127.71 54

EV/Revenue HK$39.26 HK$48.88 HK$58.50 43

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$17.54 HK$23.51 HK$35.09 50

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$206.47 HK$393.26 HK$699.33 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$96.28 HK$133.67 HK$213.88 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$28.80 HK$30.57 HK$33.56 61

ROIC Compounder HK$41.76 HK$51.83 HK$61.61 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$84.70 HK$121.00 HK$157.30 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$183.47) versus Asset-Based (HK$23.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$30.8B

Revenue growth (YoY) +6.7%

Net margin 4.6%

Return on equity 9.4%

Free cash flow HK$5.3B FY2025

P/E ratio 36.8 as of Jun 7, 2026

More key figures

Operating margin 2.2%

EPS (TTM) HK$6.29

EPS growth (YoY) +436%

Net cash HK$2.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 38

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 69

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 82

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 57

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 91

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 55

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 12

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 7

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 28

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Full company description

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of digital content, including professional user generated videos (PUGV), mobile games, and value-added services, such as live broadcasting, occupationally generated videos, audio drama on Maoer, comics on Bilibili Comic, PUGV content in fan charging program and premium courses, and Bilibili premium courses and community-based avatar decoration. The company also provides advertising services; and IP derivatives and other services. In addition, it engages in the business and technology development activities; e-commerce business; and video, comics, and game distribution activities. Bilibili Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Bilibili Inc reported revenue of HK$29.6B in FY2025 versus HK$19.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.2B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$29.6B

Latest YoY

+10.2%

Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+10.5%

Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+19.8%

Avg. growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+71.9%

Revenue +11.1%/yr

FY21 HK$19.4B

FY22 HK$21.9B

FY23 HK$22.5B

FY24 HK$26.8B

FY25 HK$29.6B

Net income

FY21 −HK$6.8B

FY22 −HK$7.5B

FY23 −HK$4.8B

FY24 −HK$1.3B

FY25 HK$1.2B

9626 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Alphabet Inc →

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Bilibili Inc · Fair Value
HK$59.96 −56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bilibili Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9626

Peer Group

Internet Content & Information · 154 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median

Fair Value upside −56% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median

Return on assets 2% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Below median

Revenue growth 7% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 36.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 3.58× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 1.81× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 14.6× · Pricier than median

PEG 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0

FUTURE 34 · sector 31

PAST 37 · sector 10

HEALTH 85 · sector 99

DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Content & Information stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Alphabet Inc GOOGL	$343.54	$145.14	-58%
Meta Platforms, Inc META	$578.85	$534.91	-8%
Tencent Holdings 0700	HK$461.60	HK$448.17	-3%
Spotify Technology S.A SPOT	$489.60	$210.99	-57%
Reddit, Inc RDDT	$153.45	$39.59	-74%
Baidu, Inc BIDU	$104.84	$66.96	-36%
Kuaishou Technology, an investment holding company, 1024	HK$41.54	HK$84.61	+104%
NAVER Corporation 035420	215,500 KRW	231,585 KRW	+7%
Tencent Music Entertainment Group 1698	HK$33.72	HK$66.60	+98%
Kakao Corp 035720	40,100 KRW	24,536 KRW	-39%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Bilibili Inc (9626) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$59.96 versus a price of HK$134.90, about −56% (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 9626?

Our model-based fair value for Bilibili Inc is HK$59.96 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$134.90.

What is the quality score of 9626?

Bilibili Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Bilibili Inc (9626)?

Bilibili Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$30.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 9626?

The net profit margin of Bilibili Inc is about 4.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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