Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock HK$39.84, price HK$111, upside -64.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 64% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr in CNY)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.2% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat66/100
Broad data
Quality 53/100
Thin margins · 19.5% net margin (TTM) · excl. one-off gain FY2025 3.7%
Fair value HK$39.84 · Strongly overvalued (−64.0%)
Trails peers(5/14)
🚩Price drop: Dropped sharply on sector-wide concerns over AI spending momentum and financing risks🚩AI analysis: Sector concerns over AI spending momentum and financing risks
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$6.69 – HK$285.11 · fair‑value band HK$29.88 – HK$49.82 · the HK$110.70 price screens above the HK$39.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company produces and sells optical fiber preforms rods, optical fiber, and optical fiber cables in China and internationally.
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Itoffers cutting edge products; optical fiber preforms, coating, and silicon tetrachloride; communication optical fire; cable products; specialty fibers, optical fiber components and modules, optical assemblies and modules, and optical fiber sensing system; submarine fiber-optic cable; optical transceiver; and coaxial cable, including RF coaxial and leaky coaxial cable, as well as accessories for RF and leaky coaxial cable.
The company also provides data center, copper structured, and fiber optic structured cabling solutions. The company serves telecom, data communication, transportation, industrial laser, power grid, submarine communication, consumer, and materials markets.
The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Wuhan, China.
Stock analysis
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) currently trades at HK$110.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$39.84, 64.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$29.08 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$110.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.73, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$29.88 (bear) to HK$49.82 (bull), the price of HK$110.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable reported revenue of 14.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 9.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 814M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$169B (≈ $21.5B) Large · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 4.76 · EPS (TTM) HK$4.27 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 255% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −64%, 6869 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$2.49 to HK$51.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearHK$29.88Fair Value HK$39.84BullHK$49.82
Price HK$110.70 · Upside -64.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$2.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 1.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+44.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.6% a year for the price and +42.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Explosive demand for optical fiber from AI data centers drives revenue but low returns on equity and thin margins highlight a weak competitive position.
Main risk: Sector-wide concerns over AI spending momentum and financing risks would hit demand for the company's optical fiber products and reduce revenue.
YOFC reported explosive revenue and profit growth in the first half, driven by AI data center demand for its optical fiber products. The shares have since dropped sharply on sector-wide concerns over AI spending momentum and financing risks. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the company gain more from continued infrastructure expansion or lose ground if demand expectations ease?
Compare Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)75.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B10.37× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.11× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow61.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)84· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$39.84 versus a price of HK$110.70, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6869?
Our model-based fair value for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is HK$39.84 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$110.70.
What is the quality score of 6869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$39.84 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$29.88, optimistic scenario HK$49.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$39.84, about −64% upside versus a price of HK$110.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$29.88, optimistic scenario HK$49.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable pay a dividend?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable currently shows a dividend yield of 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable would have to grow free cash flow by +17.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6869 use?
Our models discount Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable that is +17.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +17.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (+17.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.00 %: that much free cash flow Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable it is HK$39.84 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of HK$110.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 6869 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$110.70, fair value HK$39.84, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6869?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$110.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$39.84). For Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable the two are HK$70.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable worth?
The market values Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable at about HK$169B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is HK$110.70; our models calculate a fair value of HK$39.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6869?
Our models span a range for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable: cautious scenario HK$29.88, base HK$39.84, optimistic HK$49.82 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price HK$110.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6869?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$39.84 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 138.5 (reported for FY2025: 89.4). Other multiples: P/B 10.4, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 25.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6869 from its 52-week high?
Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable trades at HK$110.70, about 61% below its 52-week high of HK$285.11 and 255% above the low of HK$31.21 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$39.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price HK$110.70, calculated fair value HK$39.84 (−64%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6869 calculated?
We run Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$39.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was HK$110.70. Our model-based fair value is HK$39.84, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$49.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) come from?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable grew +2.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable
How large is the market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The market capitalisation of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is HK$169B (≈ $21.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 4.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable are HK$4.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The dividend yield of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 1.2% (payout 37.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 24.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The net margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 19.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
The operating margin of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Revenue at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is growing +75.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869)?
Earnings per share at Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable (6869) carry?
The net debt of Yangtze Optical Fibre & Cable is 5.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026