Xiangcai Co Ltd (600095) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 23.8B CNY (≈ $3.6B) · ISIN CNE000000S68
What is Xiangcai Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 198% above our fair value of ¥3.41.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +21.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.82 – ¥14.46 · fair‑value band ¥2.56 – ¥4.26 · the ¥10.17 price screens above the ¥3.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Xiangcai Co Ltd (600095) currently trades at ¥10.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.41, implying the stock looks roughly 198.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥17.02 per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥10.17 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.10, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Xiangcai Co Ltd generated revenue of 2.0B CNY at a net margin of 21.7%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at 15.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.56 (bear case) to ¥4.26 (bull case); at ¥10.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −66%, 600095 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.1019 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥17.02) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.10). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Xiangcai Co.,Ltd. provides securities services in China. The company offers securities brokerage; securities investment consulting; financial advisory related to securities trading and securities investment activities; securities underwriting and sponsorship; securities proprietary trading; securities asset management; securities investment fund agency …
Full company description
Xiangcai Co.,Ltd. provides securities services in China. The company offers securities brokerage; securities investment consulting; financial advisory related to securities trading and securities investment activities; securities underwriting and sponsorship; securities proprietary trading; securities asset management; securities investment fund agency sales; margin trading and securities lending services; and distribution of financial products. It also engages in food processing, waterproofing membranes production, trading, and investment and industrial businesses. The company was formerly known as Harbin High-Tech (Group) Co.,Ltd and changed its name to Xiangcai Co.,Ltd in September 2020. Xiangcai Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xiangcai Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 464M CNY in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.1 % · buybacks/dilution −20.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600095 screens 198% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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