CMOC Group Ltd (3993) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of CMOC Group Ltd HK$8.38, price HK$14.19, upside -41.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.16 – HK$24.19 · fair‑value band HK$5.12 – HK$14.82 · the HK$14.19 price screens above the HK$8.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.
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It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments.
The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer.
It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities.
The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
CMOC Group Ltd (3993) currently trades at HK$14.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.38, 41.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$35.93 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$14.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.04, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$5.12 (bear) to HK$14.82 (bull), the price of HK$14.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CMOC Group Ltd reported revenue of 206B CNY in FY2025 versus 174B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 20.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +41.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$302B (≈ $38.5B) · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 1.38 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.18 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −41%, 3993 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$5.12Fair Value HK$8.38BullHK$14.82
Price HK$14.19 · Upside -41.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.5879 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+54.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.54.7% vs 32.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 17%
2025 sits 151% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 375 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth44.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.22× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow20.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.76× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 73
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CMOC Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3993
Frequently asked questions
Is CMOC Group Ltd (3993) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.38 versus a price of HK$14.19, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3993?
Our model-based fair value for CMOC Group Ltd is HK$8.38 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$14.19.
What is the quality score of 3993?
CMOC Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.38 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.12, optimistic scenario HK$14.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CMOC Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.38, about −41% upside versus a price of HK$14.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.12, optimistic scenario HK$14.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
CMOC Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 227B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does CMOC Group Ltd pay a dividend?
CMOC Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CMOC Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.8 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 3993 use?
Our models discount CMOC Group Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CMOC Group Ltd that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CMOC Group Ltd (3993) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CMOC Group Ltd grew +12.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CMOC Group Ltd (3993) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CMOC Group Ltd (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.24 %: that much free cash flow CMOC Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CMOC Group Ltd it is HK$8.38 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of HK$14.19. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CMOC Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, 3993 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$14.19, fair value HK$8.38, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3993?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$14.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.38). For CMOC Group Ltd the two are HK$5.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CMOC Group Ltd worth?
The market values CMOC Group Ltd at about HK$302B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$14.19; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3993?
Our models span a range for CMOC Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.12, base HK$8.38, optimistic HK$14.82 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price HK$14.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3993?
CMOC Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 3.4, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 3993?
The PEG ratio of CMOC Group Ltd is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Balance-sheet figures for CMOC Group Ltd (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 28.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3993 from its 52-week high?
CMOC Group Ltd trades at HK$14.19, about 41% below its 52-week high of HK$24.19 and at the low of HK$14.19 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CMOC Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CMOC Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price HK$14.19, calculated fair value HK$8.38 (−41%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3993 calculated?
We run CMOC Group Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. CMOC Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was HK$14.19. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.38, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CMOC Group Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$5.12 to HK$14.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of CMOC Group Ltd (3993) come from?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group Ltd grew +27.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +43.0 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate −3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CMOC Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The market capitalisation of CMOC Group Ltd is HK$302B (≈ $38.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CMOC Group Ltd is 1.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group Ltd are HK$1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The dividend yield of CMOC Group Ltd is 3.1% (payout 36.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The net margin of CMOC Group Ltd is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CMOC Group Ltd is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CMOC Group Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
The operating margin of CMOC Group Ltd is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Revenue at CMOC Group Ltd is growing +44.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
Earnings per share at CMOC Group Ltd are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CMOC Group Ltd (3993) hold?
CMOC Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 377M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Oct 13, 2026