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CMOC Group Ltd (3993) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$329B (≈ $42.0B) · ISIN CNE100000114

What is CMOC Group Ltd really worth?

CG CMOC Group Ltd 3993 · HK
PriceHK$16.45
Fair ValueHK$18.92
Upside+15.0%
Quality66/100

A solid business, trading 13% below our fair value of HK$18.92.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (14/15)
✓Wide moat 77/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)
!The models disagree: range HK$14.19 to HK$46.42

For context

·2.65% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$14.19 – HK$46.42

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 25, 2026, revised from HK$18.89 to HK$18.92 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −10.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$14.19 to HK$46.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$24.35 HK$2.17 Fair Value HK$18.92 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.17 – HK$24.35 · fair‑value band HK$14.19 – HK$46.42 · the HK$16.45 price screens below the HK$18.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CMOC Group Ltd (3993) currently trades at HK$16.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$18.92, implying the stock looks roughly 13.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$30.65 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$16.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.60, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, CMOC Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$227B at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 44.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$377M. Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$14.19 (bear case) to HK$46.42 (bull case); at HK$16.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 15%, 3993 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.5042 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$12.77 HK$19.71 HK$42.38 75
EPV HK$12.81 HK$14.82 HK$16.60 74
Growth DCF HK$12.12 HK$22.10 HK$43.13 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.77 HK$19.71 HK$42.38 75
Owner Earnings HK$17.13 HK$38.19 HK$84.37 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$12.84 HK$21.99 HK$41.21 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$15.96 HK$28.30 HK$52.55 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$13.82 HK$29.69 HK$51.43 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$12.60 HK$27.94 HK$38.32 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$15.41 HK$34.82 HK$69.39 64
10Y P/E Exit HK$13.81 HK$30.10 HK$57.15 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$6.50 HK$45.30 HK$63.58 63
Lynch FV HK$18.46 HK$26.37 HK$34.28 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$18.46 HK$26.37 HK$34.28 57
EPV HK$12.81 HK$14.82 HK$16.60 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.40 HK$5.24 HK$8.82 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.40 HK$4.29 HK$5.46 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$12.18 HK$16.24 HK$20.30 63
P/S Multiple HK$10.91 HK$14.55 HK$18.18 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.72 HK$11.62 HK$14.53 55
EV/EBIT HK$18.87 HK$24.68 HK$30.49 66
EV/EBITDA HK$16.40 HK$21.38 HK$26.37 67
EV/Revenue HK$11.63 HK$16.00 HK$20.36 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.94 HK$2.60 HK$3.87 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.12 HK$22.10 HK$43.13 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$13.21 HK$24.93 HK$47.59 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$6.86 HK$9.39 HK$60.84 64
ROIC Compounder HK$15.65 HK$21.94 HK$30.65 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$21.45 HK$30.65 HK$39.84 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$30.65) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.60). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.38 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$1.18 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0
Dividend yield 2.7% payout 36.9%
Net margin 9.9% FY2025
Return on equity 28.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 19.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$227B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +44.3% 3y avg +6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +100%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$13.5B FY2025
Net cash HK$377M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.

Full company description

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe. It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments. The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer. It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities. The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CMOC Group Ltd reported revenue of 206B CNY in FY2025 versus 174B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 20.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +41.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$206B
Latest YoY
−3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+57.4% (54.7 + 2.7)
Revenue +4.4%/yr
FY21 174B CNY
FY22 173B CNY
FY23 186B CNY
FY24 213B CNY
FY25 206B CNY
Net income +41.3%/yr
FY21 5.1B CNY
FY22 6.1B CNY
FY23 8.2B CNY
FY24 13.5B CNY
FY25 20.3B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +27.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +43.0 %

of which total revenue +48.0 % · buybacks/dilution −3.4 %

EBIT margin −5.5 %
Tax rate −3.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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CMOC Group Ltd · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CMOC Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3993

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +15% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 44% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.99× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.45× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.76× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE53 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 38
PAST100 · sector 0
HEALTH99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND53 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.31 $8.95 −42%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CMOC Group Ltd (3993) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$18.92 versus a price of HK$16.45, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3993?
Our model-based fair value for CMOC Group Ltd is HK$18.92 (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$16.45.
What is the quality score of 3993?
CMOC Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CMOC Group Ltd (3993)?
CMOC Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$227B (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3993?
The net profit margin of CMOC Group Ltd is about 10.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CMOC Group Ltd pay a dividend?
CMOC Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).
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