GCL Technology Holdings (3800) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$22.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.9500 to HK$1.37 (+44.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +24.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 86% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5800 – HK$3.65 · fair‑value band HK$0.9900 – HK$1.75 · the HK$0.7350 price screens below the HK$1.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
GCL Technology Holdings (3800) currently trades at HK$0.7350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.37, implying the stock looks roughly 86.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, GCL Technology Holdings generated revenue of HK$14.4B at a net margin of -19.9%. Revenue grew 39.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.8%. Net debt stands at HK$4.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9900 (bear case) to HK$1.75 (bull case); at HK$0.7350, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at 86%, 3800 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.55) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments.
Full company description
GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments. The company manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer products to companies operating in the solar industry; and operates and manages solar farms located in the United States and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of ingot; sale of electricity; trading of wafer; research and development, and sales of electronic special materials; construction and sale of solar farm projects; and provision of equity investment, investment management, and asset management, as well as business management, real estate development, and real estate consulting services. The company was formerly known as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL Technology Holdings Limited in April 2022. GCL Technology Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GCL Technology Holdings reported revenue of HK$14.4B in FY2025 versus HK$16.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.9B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Solar · 116 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $240.91 | $392.12 | +63% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $103.67 | $69.61 | -33% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,668 | ₹2,709 | +2% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥12.89 | ¥12.13 | -6% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.52 | ¥6.47 | +43% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $40.77 | $24.15 | -41% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.28 | ¥6.76 | -34% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥22.35 | ¥31.86 | +43% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,086 | ₹912.32 | -16% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥13.64 | ¥7.97 | -42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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