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GCL Technology Holdings (3800) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$22.1B

GT GCL Technology Holdings 3800 · HK
PriceHK$0.7350
Fair ValueHK$1.37
Upside+86.4%
Quality38/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -19.9% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
Narrow moat 14/100
Evidence: Low Range HK$0.9900 – HK$1.75 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.9500 to HK$1.37 (+44.2%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +24.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 86% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.9900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.65 HK$0.5800 Fair Value HK$1.37 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5800 – HK$3.65 · fair‑value band HK$0.9900 – HK$1.75 · the HK$0.7350 price screens below the HK$1.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

GCL Technology Holdings (3800) currently trades at HK$0.7350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.37, implying the stock looks roughly 86.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, GCL Technology Holdings generated revenue of HK$14.4B at a net margin of -19.9%. Revenue grew 39.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.8%. Net debt stands at HK$4.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.9900 (bear case) to HK$1.75 (bull case); at HK$0.7350, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at 86%, 3800 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.4100 HK$0.7800 HK$1.31 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4100 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8600 61
EV/EBITDA HK$1.22 HK$1.55 HK$1.88 54
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.4100 HK$0.7800 HK$1.31 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4100 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8600 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA HK$1.22 HK$1.55 HK$1.88 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.25 50

Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.55) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.6300). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$14.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +39.4%
Net margin -19.9%
Return on equity -6.8%
Free cash flow −HK$5.2B FY2025
Operating margin 1.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-0.0600
EPS growth (YoY) -19.4%
Net debt HK$4.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 53
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 29
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments.

Full company description

GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments. The company manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer products to companies operating in the solar industry; and operates and manages solar farms located in the United States and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of ingot; sale of electricity; trading of wafer; research and development, and sales of electronic special materials; construction and sale of solar farm projects; and provision of equity investment, investment management, and asset management, as well as business management, real estate development, and real estate consulting services. The company was formerly known as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL Technology Holdings Limited in April 2022. GCL Technology Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GCL Technology Holdings reported revenue of HK$14.4B in FY2025 versus HK$16.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$2.9B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 4/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$14.4B
Latest YoY
−4.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−26.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.1%
Revenue −3.8%/yr
FY21 HK$16.9B
FY22 HK$35.9B
FY23 HK$33.7B
FY24 HK$15.1B
FY25 HK$14.4B
Net income
FY21 HK$5.1B
FY22 HK$16.0B
FY23 HK$2.5B
FY24 −HK$4.8B
FY25 −HK$2.9B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GCL Technology Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3800

Peer Group

Solar · 116 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside +86% · Top 25%
Return on assets -1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Above median
Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.15× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheaper than median
PEG 9.78× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 92 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 13

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $240.91 $392.12 +63%
Nextpower Inc NXT $103.67 $69.61 -33%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,668 ₹2,709 +2%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥12.89 ¥12.13 -6%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥4.52 ¥6.47 +43%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $40.77 $24.15 -41%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥10.28 ¥6.76 -34%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥22.35 ¥31.86 +43%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹1,086 ₹912.32 -16%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥13.64 ¥7.97 -42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GCL Technology Holdings (3800) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.37 versus a price of HK$0.7350, about +86% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3800?
Our model-based fair value for GCL Technology Holdings is HK$1.37 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.7350.
What is the quality score of 3800?
GCL Technology Holdings has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GCL Technology Holdings (3800)?
GCL Technology Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$14.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3800?
The net profit margin of GCL Technology Holdings is about -19.9%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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