Hesai Group (2525) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$21.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.34 to HK$6.68 (+5.4%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price +22.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$6.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$6.67 to HK$6.68), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (11 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range HK$14.36 – HK$29.25 · fair‑value band HK$6.67 – HK$6.68 · the HK$18.60 price screens above the HK$6.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Hesai Group (2525) currently trades at HK$18.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.68, implying the stock looks roughly 64.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hesai Group generated revenue of HK$3.2B at a net margin of 14.8%. Revenue grew 29.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$664M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$6.67 (bear case) to HK$6.68 (bull case); at HK$18.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -52% fair-value upside, at -64%, 2525 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$17.47) versus Economic Profit (HK$2.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.
Full company description
Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hesai Group reported revenue of HK$3.0B in FY2025 versus HK$111M in FY2021, a compound +128.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$436M in FY2025.
2525 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 643 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,082 | ₹393.20 | -81% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,232 | ₹426.57 | -65% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,126 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 71,500 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +175% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹799.90 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
| Balkrishna Industries Limited BALKRISIND | ₹2,497 | ₹1,211 | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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