Nanya Technology Corp (2408) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · TW · Market cap 1.2T TWD (≈ $38.6B) · ISIN TW0002408002
What is Nanya Technology Corp really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 859% above our fair value of 51.73 TWD.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 41.58 TWD to 51.73 TWD (+24.4%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (61.88 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 25.40 TWD – 543.00 TWD · fair‑value band 39.03 TWD – 61.88 TWD · the 496.00 TWD price screens above the 51.73 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nanya Technology Corp (2408) currently trades at 496.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 51.73 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 858.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 67.94 TWD per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 496.00 TWD price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 20.39 TWD, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nanya Technology Corp generated revenue of 108B TWD at a net margin of 31.9%. It earns a return on equity of 19.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 34.5B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 39.03 TWD (bear case) to 61.88 TWD (bull case); at 496.00 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −90%, 2408 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 1.42 TWD per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (67.94 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (20.39 TWD). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nanya Technology Corporation research, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, China, the United States, Thailand, Germany, Singapore, Poland and internationally.
Full company description
Nanya Technology Corporation research, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, China, the United States, Thailand, Germany, Singapore, Poland and internationally. It offers standard dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), low power DRAM, MCP and eMCP, and KGD products, as well as modules; and other memory products and Elixir brands. The company engages in the import and export of its machinery, equipment, and raw materials. Its products have applications in home and entertainment, office and enterprise, mobile and portable, industrial, and automotive. Nanya Technology Corporation was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nanya Technology Corp reported revenue of 66.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 85.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B TWD in FY2025, compounding −26.7%/yr from FY2021.
2408 screens 859% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Nanya Technology Corp (TPE:2408) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges Amidst Supply ...
- Taiwanese chipmaker Nanya plans $6 billion in spending in 2027, riding AI boom
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | −57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | −31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | −68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,647,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | −10% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | −88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | −62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | −71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | −11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | −59% |
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