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China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H (1088) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$920B (≈ $117B) · ISIN CNE1000002R0

What is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H really worth?

CS China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H 1088 · HK
PriceHK$45.74
Fair ValueHK$37.05
Upside−19.0%
Quality65/100

A solid business, but trading 23% above our fair value of HK$37.05.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 17.8% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 61/100
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
!Weak on future: 6 out of 100

For context

·7.70% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$26.33 – HK$48.97

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 25, 2026, revised from HK$36.99 to HK$37.05 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$26.33 to HK$48.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$47.81 HK$9.08 Fair Value HK$37.05 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$9.08 – HK$47.81 · fair‑value band HK$26.33 – HK$48.97 · the HK$45.74 price screens above the HK$37.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

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Analysis

China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H (1088) currently trades at HK$45.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$37.05, implying the stock looks roughly 23.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$50.31 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$45.74 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$13.80, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H generated revenue of HK$296B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$67.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$26.33 (bear case) to HK$48.97 (bull case); at HK$45.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −19%, 1088 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$18.81 HK$26.67 HK$38.70 78
Growth DCF HK$19.27 HK$26.52 HK$37.11 76
Owner Earnings HK$19.66 HK$27.96 HK$40.66 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$18.81 HK$26.67 HK$38.70 78
Owner Earnings HK$19.66 HK$27.96 HK$40.66 74
5Y Revenue Exit HK$16.45 HK$23.18 HK$31.52 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.25 HK$31.85 HK$43.86 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$24.86 HK$38.38 HK$52.10 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$16.77 HK$23.10 HK$31.05 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$20.24 HK$29.14 HK$40.39 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$22.57 HK$33.69 HK$46.62 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$18.09 HK$46.61 HK$60.70 63
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.77 HK$12.53 HK$16.29 55
EPV HK$31.36 HK$36.28 HK$40.66 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$32.25 HK$66.37 HK$118.47 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$32.25 HK$50.31 HK$70.68 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$27.93 HK$37.24 HK$46.55 63
P/S Multiple HK$13.36 HK$17.81 HK$22.27 58
P/B Multiple HK$27.80 HK$37.06 HK$46.33 55
EV/EBIT HK$30.63 HK$39.69 HK$48.75 66
EV/EBITDA HK$25.12 HK$32.35 HK$39.57 67
EV/Revenue HK$15.92 HK$21.26 HK$26.60 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.30 HK$13.80 HK$20.59 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$19.27 HK$26.52 HK$37.11 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$16.45 HK$23.32 HK$30.87 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$19.90 HK$23.72 HK$42.08 71
ROIC Compounder HK$32.81 HK$40.46 HK$49.37 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$22.60 HK$32.28 HK$41.97 65

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$50.31) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.2 as of Jul 17, 2026
P/S ratio 2.54 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$2.74 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2
Dividend yield 7.7% payout 129%
Net margin 17.9% FY2025
Return on equity 11.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 25.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$296B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.2% 3y avg −5.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −12.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$26.7B FY2025
Net cash HK$67.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations.

Full company description

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H reported revenue of 295B CNY in FY2025 versus 335B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 52.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$295B
Latest YoY
−12.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.8% (4.1 + 7.7)
Revenue −3.2%/yr
FY21 335B CNY
FY22 345B CNY
FY23 343B CNY
FY24 338B CNY
FY25 295B CNY
Net income +1.4%/yr
FY21 50.1B CNY
FY22 69.6B CNY
FY23 59.7B CNY
FY24 58.7B CNY
FY25 52.8B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +9.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.4 %

of which total revenue +5.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +2.1 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

1088 screens 23% overvalued. Compare with PT Bayan Resources Tbk., →

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China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H · Fair Value
HK$37.05 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1088

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −19% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.25× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 10.55× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE8 · sector 8
FUTURE6 · sector 0
PAST47 · sector 21
HEALTH97 · sector 93
DIVIDEND100 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 15,325 IDR 3,542 IDR −77%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,965 ₹891.11 −70%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.08 ¥23.90 −5%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥21.60 ¥13.24 −39%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹417.85 ₹464.01 +11%
533278 533278 ₹406.50 ₹660.78 +63%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥13.93 ¥13.91 +0%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,145 IDR 352.75 IDR −69%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥26.48 ¥20.72 −22%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥16.27 ¥7.20 −56%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H (1088) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$37.05 versus a price of HK$45.74, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1088?
Our model-based fair value for China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H is HK$37.05 (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$45.74.
What is the quality score of 1088?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H (1088)?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$296B (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1088?
The net profit margin of China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H is about 17.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H pay a dividend?
China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd H currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.70% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).
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