China Shenhua Energy Company (1088) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · HK · Market cap HK$920B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$37.34 to HK$36.99 (−0.9%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +0.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$26.28 to HK$48.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$8.95 – HK$47.81 · fair‑value band HK$26.28 – HK$48.88 · the HK$43.04 price screens above the HK$36.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Shenhua Energy Company (1088) currently trades at HK$43.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.99, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Shenhua Energy Company generated revenue of HK$296B at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$67.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$26.28 (bear case) to HK$48.88 (bull case); at HK$43.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at -14%, 1088 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$50.31) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations.
Full company description
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Shenhua Energy Company reported revenue of HK$295B in FY2025 versus HK$335B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$52.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1088 screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Adani Enterprises Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's Why China Shenhua Energy Co. (CSUAY) Is a Great 'Buy the Bottom' Stock Now
- Global Anthracite Market to Grow by $4.9 Billion During 2026-2035: China Shenhua Energy Co., Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., and Mechel PAO Dominat
- Mining Industry Report 2026-2035: A $2.75+ Trillion Market by 2030 with BHP Group, Rio Tinto Group, Glencore, Vale, and China Shenhua Energy
- China Metals & Mining Industry Report 2025, Profiles of Jiangxi Copper, China Shenhua Energy Co, Zijin Mining Group, Aluminum Corp of Ch
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | -70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | -5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥22.09 | ¥13.24 | -40% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹409.30 | ₹464.01 | +13% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | -0% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | -22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,520 IDR | 3,037 IDR | +21% |
| PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI | 9,350 IDR | 13,935 IDR | +49% |
| Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group 000983 | ¥6.76 | ¥3.60 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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