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Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$19.2B (≈ $2.4B) · ISIN KYG9829N1025

What is Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd really worth?

XS Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd 0968 · HK
PriceHK$2.17
Fair ValueHK$3.35
Upside+54.7%
Quality56/100

A solid business, trading 35% below our fair value of HK$3.35.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (14/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.1% net margin
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100

For context

·2.08% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$2.83 – HK$4.18

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price −9.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.83). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$16.91 HK$1.94 Fair Value HK$3.35 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.94 – HK$16.91 · fair‑value band HK$2.83 – HK$4.18 · the HK$2.17 price screens below the HK$3.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968) currently trades at HK$2.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.35, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$6.68 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.17 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.17, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$20.9B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at HK$9.9B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.83 (bear case) to HK$4.18 (bull case); at HK$2.17, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 55%, 0968 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0238 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$2.62 HK$2.53 HK$2.11 76
FCF DCF HK$6.10 HK$9.75 HK$21.23 75
EPV HK$0.9900 HK$1.17 HK$1.34 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.10 HK$9.75 HK$21.23 75
Owner Earnings HK$0.8100 HK$2.02 HK$4.56 69
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.81 HK$4.54 HK$7.93 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.84 HK$10.87 HK$20.36 71
5Y P/E Exit HK$3.13 HK$6.00 HK$9.68 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.68 HK$6.68 HK$8.97 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.92 HK$12.79 HK$25.74 64
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.97 HK$7.31 HK$12.89 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7000 HK$4.87 HK$6.84 63
Lynch FV HK$1.62 HK$2.32 HK$3.01 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.62 HK$2.32 HK$3.01 57
EPV HK$0.9900 HK$1.17 HK$1.34 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.16 HK$2.88 HK$3.60 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.31 HK$1.75 HK$2.18 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.31 HK$1.75 HK$2.18 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.06 HK$4.13 HK$5.19 66
EV/EBITDA HK$5.74 HK$7.70 HK$9.66 67
EV/Revenue HK$1.48 HK$2.17 HK$2.87 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.82 HK$2.43 HK$3.63 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$5.74 HK$10.86 HK$21.14 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.81 HK$5.15 HK$8.73 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.62 HK$2.53 HK$2.11 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9900 HK$1.17 HK$1.34 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.43 HK$3.48 HK$4.52 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$6.68) versus Economic Profit (HK$1.17). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 19.1 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.77 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1
Dividend yield 2.1% payout 56.3%
Net margin 4.0% FY2025
Return on equity 1.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 19.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$20.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −2.9% 3y avg +4.2%
EPS growth (YoY) −59.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$3.4B FY2025
Net debt HK$9.9B FY2025 · ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 70
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells solar glass products in Mainland China, rest of Asia, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Sales of Solar Glass and Renewable Energy Business.

Full company description

Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells solar glass products in Mainland China, rest of Asia, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Sales of Solar Glass and Renewable Energy Business. It offers ultra-clear patterned solar glasses, back glasses, and anti-reflective coating solar glasses. The company also develops, operates, and manages solar farms; and generates solar power. In addition, it offers engineering, procurement, and construction services; solar power systems; and silicon products. Further, the company engages in mining activities and the sale of mining products. Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 23.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 940M CNY in FY2025, compounding −33.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$23.2B
Latest YoY
+5.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−25.4% (−27.5 + 2.1)
Revenue +9.6%/yr
FY21 16.1B CNY
FY22 20.5B CNY
FY23 26.6B CNY
FY24 21.9B CNY
FY25 23.2B CNY
Net income −33.9%/yr
FY21 4.9B CNY
FY22 3.8B CNY
FY23 4.2B CNY
FY24 1.0B CNY
FY25 940M CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +16.2 %

of which total revenue +20.7 % · buybacks/dilution −3.7 %

EBIT margin −9.4 %
Tax rate −1.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0968

Peer Group

Solar · 109 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +55% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.21× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.92× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 15
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST8 · sector 0
HEALTH90 · sector 85
DIVIDEND42 · sector 29

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $210.10 $392.12 +87%
Nextpower Inc NXT $103.67 $69.61 −33%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,624 ₹2,709 +3%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥12.89 ¥12.13 −6%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥4.16 ¥6.47 +56%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $39.25 $24.15 −38%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥10.28 ¥6.76 −34%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥21.53 ¥31.86 +48%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹1,017 ₹648.94 −36%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥12.77 ¥7.97 −38%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.35 versus a price of HK$2.17, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0968?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd is HK$3.35 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.17.
What is the quality score of 0968?
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968)?
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0968?
The net profit margin of Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd is about 4.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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