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China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$521B (≈ $66.4B) · ISIN CNE1000002Q2

What is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H really worth?

CP China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H 0386 · HK
PriceHK$4.79
Fair ValueHK$5.35
Upside+11.7%
Quality46/100

Below-average quality, trading 10% below our fair value of HK$5.35.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.3% net margin
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100

For context

·5.24% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$3.27 – HK$6.68

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$4.23 to HK$5.35 (+26.4%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +10.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (HK$3.27 to HK$6.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$5.49 HK$2.23 Fair Value HK$5.35 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.23 – HK$5.49 · fair‑value band HK$3.27 – HK$6.68 · the HK$4.79 price screens below the HK$5.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) currently trades at HK$4.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.35, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$5.23 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$4.79 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.28, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H generated revenue of HK$2.8T at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at HK$517B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.27 (bear case) to HK$6.68 (bull case); at HK$4.79, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 12%, 0386 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0359 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.93 HK$3.60 HK$6.16 78
Growth DCF HK$2.03 HK$3.56 HK$5.80 76
Residual Income HK$5.20 HK$5.23 HK$4.83 76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.93 HK$3.60 HK$6.16 78
Owner Earnings HK$1.21 HK$2.50 HK$4.48 73
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.40 HK$2.79 HK$4.51 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.20 HK$4.23 HK$6.54 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.42 HK$2.81 HK$4.22 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.48 HK$2.79 HK$4.45 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.07 HK$3.80 HK$5.98 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.57 HK$2.81 HK$4.23 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.78 HK$4.67 HK$6.09 65
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8900 HK$1.28 HK$1.66 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.14 HK$4.56 HK$7.85 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.14 HK$3.36 HK$4.73 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.74 HK$3.65 HK$4.57 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.33 HK$4.44 HK$5.55 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.33 HK$4.44 HK$5.55 55
EV/EBITDA HK$2.82 HK$4.18 HK$5.55 66
EV/Revenue HK$1.26 HK$2.35 HK$3.44 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.42 HK$4.58 HK$6.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.03 HK$3.56 HK$5.80 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.40 HK$2.82 HK$4.38 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.20 HK$5.23 HK$4.83 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.23 HK$3.19 HK$4.15 67

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$5.23) versus Earnings-Based (HK$1.28). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 13.9 as of Jul 17, 2026
P/S ratio 0.18 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.3040 price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9
Dividend yield 5.2% payout 82.6%
Net margin 1.3% FY2025
Return on equity 4.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$2.8T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.9% 3y avg −9.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +27.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$33.8B FY2025
Net debt HK$517B FY2025 · ≈ 15.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments.

Full company description

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, an energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining, Marketing and Distribution, Chemicals, and Corporate and Others segments. The company explores and develops oil fields; produces and sells crude oil and natural gas; processes, purifies, imports, and trades in crude oil; manufactures, produces, sells, stores, and trades in petroleum products; owns and operates oil depots and service stations; and produces, markets, distributes, and sells refined petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel. It also manufactures, sells, markets, and distributes petrochemicals and derivative petrochemical products, and other chemical products, such as basic organic chemicals, synthetic resins, synthetic fiber monomers and polymers, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, and chemical fertilizers. In addition, the company explores, produces, and sells petroleum and natural gas; produces, stores, transports, and sells petrochemical and coal chemical products; produces and sells catalyst products, lubricant base oil, polyester chips and fibers, plastics, and petrochemical materials; and offers crude oil jetty and natural gas pipeline transmission services. Further, it engages in the production, sale, research, and development of ethylene and downstream byproducts; import and export of petroleum, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemical, other chemical products, and other commodities and technologies; research, development, and application of technologies and information; hydrogen energy business and related services, such as hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and sales; and battery charging and swapping, solar energy, wind energy, and other new energy business and related services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Beijing, China. The company operates as a subsidiary of China Petrochemical Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H reported revenue of 2.4T CNY in FY2025 versus 2.7T CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 31.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.4T
Latest YoY
−20.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−6.1% (−11.3 + 5.2)
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 2.7T CNY
FY22 3.3T CNY
FY23 3.2T CNY
FY24 3.1T CNY
FY25 2.4T CNY
Net income −18.6%/yr
FY21 72.0B CNY
FY22 66.9B CNY
FY23 58.3B CNY
FY24 48.9B CNY
FY25 31.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.9 %

of which total revenue +4.0 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin −2.3 %
Tax rate +1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0386

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +12% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.28× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.63× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE49 · sector 5
FUTURE0 · sector 12
PAST17 · sector 43
HEALTH86 · sector 86
DIVIDEND100 · sector 74

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $156.44 $88.98 −43%
Chevron Corporation CVX $201.86 $90.66 −55%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.23 ¥15.47 +38%
Shell plc SHELL €40.28 €39.46 −2%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.11 €2.03 −71%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$5.35 versus a price of HK$4.79, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0386?
Our model-based fair value for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is HK$5.35 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.79.
What is the quality score of 0386?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H (0386)?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.8T (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0386?
The net profit margin of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H is about 1.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H pay a dividend?
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp Class H currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.24% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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