EN DE

Tsingtao Brew (0168) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$58.7B (≈ $7.5B) · ISIN CNE1000004K1

What is Tsingtao Brew really worth?

TB Tsingtao Brew 0168 · HK
PriceHK$40.50
Fair ValueHK$72.73
Upside+79.6%
Quality64/100

A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of HK$72.73.

Watch Tsingtao Brew for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 14.5% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.2 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 62/100

For context

·5.80% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$47.72 – HK$96.47

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price −9.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$47.72). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$47.72 to HK$96.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$72.14 HK$36.97 Fair Value HK$72.73 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$36.97 – HK$72.14 · fair‑value band HK$47.72 – HK$96.47 · the HK$40.50 price screens below the HK$72.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Tsingtao Brew (0168) currently trades at HK$40.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$72.73, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$62.67 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$40.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.06, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tsingtao Brew generated revenue of HK$32.3B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$12.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$47.72 (bear case) to HK$96.47 (bull case); at HK$40.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 80%, 0168 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.7302 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$33.44 HK$47.77 HK$70.13 79
Growth DCF HK$33.75 HK$46.25 HK$64.46 78
Owner Earnings HK$39.53 HK$57.49 HK$85.53 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$33.44 HK$47.77 HK$70.13 79
Owner Earnings HK$39.53 HK$57.49 HK$85.53 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$31.98 HK$45.96 HK$63.94 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.11 HK$69.03 HK$98.59 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$48.00 HK$76.43 HK$106.85 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$31.57 HK$44.56 HK$62.33 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.06 HK$60.73 HK$89.20 67
10Y P/E Exit HK$42.56 HK$65.91 HK$95.60 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$22.28 HK$75.02 HK$100.53 62
Lynch FV HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.77 58
PEG = 1.0 HK$17.11 HK$24.44 HK$31.77 55
EPV HK$33.83 HK$37.89 HK$41.45 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$19.68 HK$40.91 HK$64.90 64
DDM Multi-Stage HK$19.68 HK$33.74 HK$42.94 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$51.60 HK$68.80 HK$86.00 61
P/S Multiple HK$25.96 HK$34.62 HK$43.27 56
P/B Multiple HK$41.77 HK$55.69 HK$69.62 53
EV/EBIT HK$56.42 HK$72.08 HK$87.74 65
EV/EBITDA HK$54.41 HK$69.41 HK$84.40 66
EV/Revenue HK$32.15 HK$41.88 HK$51.62 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$11.24 HK$15.06 HK$22.48 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$33.75 HK$46.25 HK$64.46 78
Rev-Margin DCF HK$31.98 HK$45.92 HK$62.30 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$22.25 HK$27.52 HK$55.37 71
ROIC Compounder HK$35.81 HK$43.16 HK$51.94 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$43.87 HK$62.67 HK$81.48 66

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$62.67) versus Asset-Based (HK$15.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

Notify me when 0168 reaches fair value

Put 0168 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.9 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 1.65 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$3.43 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9
Dividend yield 5.8% payout 68.5%
Net margin 15.1% FY2025
Return on equity 14.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 22.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$32.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −1.5% 3y avg −2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$2.8B FY2025
Net cash HK$12.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.

Full company description

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tsingtao Brew reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$29.5B
Latest YoY
−8.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (35Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.8% (15.0 + 5.8)
Revenue −0.5%/yr
FY21 30.2B CNY
FY22 32.2B CNY
FY23 33.9B CNY
FY24 32.1B CNY
FY25 29.5B CNY
Net income +9.1%/yr
FY21 3.2B CNY
FY22 3.7B CNY
FY23 4.3B CNY
FY24 4.3B CNY
FY25 4.5B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.5 %

of which total revenue +1.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin +10.7 %
Tax rate +1.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

Watch 0168: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Tsingtao Brew · Fair Value
HK$72.73 +44%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tsingtao Brew Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0168

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Above median
Fair Value upside +80% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.91× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 5.78× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 28
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST59 · sector 36
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND100 · sector 63

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €68.28 €60.24 −12%
Heineken N.V HEIA €72.70 €65.06 −11%
Ambev S.A ABEV $2.86 $4.05 +42%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX $120.41 $54.74 −55%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $129.09 $173.19 +34%
Carlsberg A/S CARLA kr 1,115 kr 607.30 −46%
Heineken Holding HEIO €68.25 €60.55 −11%
Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 HK$6.35 HK$6.05 −5%
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 HK$22.16 HK$25.38 +15%
Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA C$63.00 C$105.41 +67%

Compare Tsingtao Brew with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is Tsingtao Brew (0168) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$72.73 versus a price of HK$40.50, about +80% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0168?
Our model-based fair value for Tsingtao Brew is HK$72.73 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$40.50.
What is the quality score of 0168?
Tsingtao Brew has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tsingtao Brew (0168)?
Tsingtao Brew reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$32.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0168?
The net profit margin of Tsingtao Brew is about 14.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tsingtao Brew pay a dividend?
Tsingtao Brew currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.80% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
Free · no account needed

Watch Tsingtao Brew in the live analysis

One click puts Tsingtao Brew on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.