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Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd (002265) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 20.3B CNY (≈ $3.0B) · ISIN CNE100000CK0

What is Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd really worth?

YX Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd 002265 · SHE
Price¥21.45
Fair Value¥4.96
Upside−76.9%
Quality51/100

A solid business, but trading 333% above our fair value of ¥4.96.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +47.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.8% net margin
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: High Range ¥3.72 – ¥6.19

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +11.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥44.89 ¥6.13 Fair Value ¥4.96 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.13 – ¥44.89 · fair‑value band ¥3.72 – ¥6.19 · the ¥21.45 price screens above the ¥4.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd (002265) currently trades at ¥21.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.96, implying the stock looks roughly 332.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥8.35 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥21.45 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.51, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd generated revenue of 4.9B CNY at a net margin of 4.8%. Revenue grew 51.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.72 (bear case) to ¥6.19 (bull case); at ¥21.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −77%, 002265 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.1556 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥3.65 ¥4.62 ¥7.72 79
Growth DCF ¥3.55 ¥4.92 ¥7.70 78
Residual Income ¥2.93 ¥3.01 ¥3.04 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥3.65 ¥4.62 ¥7.72 79
Owner Earnings ¥7.55 ¥14.69 ¥29.69 72
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.86 ¥5.47 ¥8.81 72
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.26 ¥8.35 ¥14.34 73
5Y P/E Exit ¥5.18 ¥9.57 ¥15.57 69
10Y Revenue Exit ¥3.74 ¥6.19 ¥8.11 67
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.84 ¥9.13 ¥17.33 65
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.77 ¥8.95 ¥16.41 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.53 ¥10.68 ¥14.99 63
Lynch FV ¥3.78 ¥5.40 ¥7.02 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.78 ¥5.40 ¥7.02 57
EPV ¥3.43 ¥3.68 ¥3.89 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0800 ¥0.1700 ¥0.2800 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0800 ¥0.1500 ¥0.1800 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.72 ¥4.96 ¥6.19 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.87 ¥3.83 ¥4.79 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.87 ¥3.83 ¥4.79 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.65 ¥5.55 ¥6.44 66
EV/EBITDA ¥5.78 ¥7.06 ¥8.34 67
EV/Revenue ¥3.77 ¥4.55 ¥5.33 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.87 ¥2.51 ¥3.74 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥3.55 ¥4.92 ¥7.70 78
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.86 ¥5.98 ¥9.59 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.93 ¥3.01 ¥3.04 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.43 ¥3.68 ¥4.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥5.00 ¥7.15 ¥9.29 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.35) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.1500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 93.3
P/S ratio 4.81 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 93.3
Dividend yield 0.0% payout 4.3%
Net margin 5.2% FY2025
Return on equity 6.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 2.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 4.9B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +51.0% 3y avg +2.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 104M CNY FY2025
Net cash 2.1B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 26
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of military and civilian products in China and internationally. The company offers military products, including full-caliber firearms and light weapons.

Full company description

Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, sale, and service of military and civilian products in China and internationally. The company offers military products, including full-caliber firearms and light weapons. It also provides civilian products, such as automotive powertrain, transmission, steering, and safety systems; new energy vehicle parts comprising mechanical steering gears, pedals, connecting rods, commercial vehicle steel pistons, and reducer gear blanks, as well as steering, intermediate, drive half, and motor shafts; precision forging products; other automotive parts; and civilian firearms. In addition, the company offers anti-terrorism and riot control products; training systems; optoelectronic information fusion equipment; titanium alloys; and powder metallurgy products. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Yunnan Xiyi Industry Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd. in July 2023. Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China. Jianshe Industry Group (Yunnan) Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China South Industries Group Co.,Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was 233M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.5B CNY
Latest YoY
+3.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+47.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+6.4% (6.4 + 0.0)
Revenue −0.1%/yr
FY21 4.5B CNY
FY22 4.3B CNY
FY23 4.3B CNY
FY24 4.4B CNY
FY25 4.5B CNY
Net income −5.6%/yr
FY21 294M CNY
FY22 229M CNY
FY23 291M CNY
FY24 260M CNY
FY25 233M CNY

002265 screens 333% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002265

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 640 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 51% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 93.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 5.24× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.17× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 29.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 46.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.71× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 14
FUTURE100 · sector 21
PAST24 · sector 28
HEALTH99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND1 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd (002265) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.96 versus a price of ¥21.45, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002265?
Our model-based fair value for Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd is ¥4.96 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥21.45.
What is the quality score of 002265?
Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd (002265)?
Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002265?
The net profit margin of Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd is about 4.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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