Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Twilio (TWLO) and Microsoft (MSFT) compare, as of Aug 14, 2026.
As of Aug 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Microsoft as the less overvalued of the two: Twilio trades at $249 versus a fair value of $11.27 (-95%), while Microsoft trades at $497 versus $381 (-23%).
Twilio
TWLO · USD · Information Technology
-95%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$249
Fair Value$11.27
Quality72/100
Microsoft
MSFT · USD · Information Technology
-23%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$497
Fair Value$381
Quality68/100
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
TwilioMicrosoft
Valuation
321.5×P/E (TTM)22.9×
6.26×P/S (TTM)8.99×
4.24×P/B8.33×
76.1×EV/EBITDA15.6×
0.40×PEG1.19×
—Dividend yield0.9%
—Dividend per share$3.56
Profitability
2%Net margin39%
8%Operating margin46%
1%Return on equity34%
2%Return on assets15%
Growth
20%Revenue growth (YoY)18%
9.8%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)12.4%
23.5%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)14.5%
Balance & size
0.13×Debt / equity0.12×
$33BMarket cap$2.9T
healthyGrowth qualityexpensive
Microsoft leads: 5 to 8 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
Twilioof which business quality 71 · market factors 74Microsoftof which business quality 65 · market factors 52
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
26
75
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
65
53
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
100
1
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
19
57
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
96
49
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
100
50
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
100
84
What the models say
The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.
Twilio
DCF Models$88.25
Earnings-Based$8.50
Dividend Discount$0.13
Multiples$9.58
Asset-Based$34.53
Growth DCF$136
Economic Profit$20.21
Growth Earnings$11.27
26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.
Microsoft
DCF Models$333
Earnings-Based$189
Dividend Discount$61.93
Multiples$308
Asset-Based$30.98
Growth DCF$249
Economic Profit$184
Growth Earnings$332
26 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.
Twilio
Bear $7.89Fair Value $11.27Bull $14.65
$249 = current price (white tick)
Microsoft
Bear $192Fair Value $381Bull $480
$497 = current price (white tick)
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
Twilio · Information Technology
Quality score72 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-95% · bottom 25%
Microsoft · Information Technology
Quality score68 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-23% · above median
Bottom line
As of Aug 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Microsoft as the less overvalued of the two: Twilio trades at $249 versus a fair value of $11.27 (-95%), while Microsoft trades at $497 versus $381 (-23%).
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.
