YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $17.9B · ISIN US9842451000
What is YPF Sociedad Anonima really worth?
YPF Sociedad Anonima
YPF · US
Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of $83.94.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from $57.30 to $83.94 (+46.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($59.81). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($59.81 to $108.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.91 – $56.35 · fair‑value band $59.81 – $108.05 · the $52.41 price screens below the $83.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) currently trades at $52.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $83.94, implying the stock looks roughly 37.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $57.30 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $52.41 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.77, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, YPF Sociedad Anonima generated revenue of $25.3T at a net margin of −1.8%. Revenue grew 42.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.9%. Net debt stands at $14.8T. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $59.81 (bear case) to $108.05 (bull case); at $52.41, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 60%, YPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($57.30) versus Asset-Based ($18.77). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments.
Full company description
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
YPF Sociedad Anonima reported revenue of 26.5T ARS in FY2025 versus 1.3T ARS in FY2021, a compound +111.9%/yr. Reported net income was −1.2T ARS in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is YPF a Buy as Shale Growth Collides With Rising Execution Risk?
- YPF, E & XRG Advance Argentina LNG Toward a Key Investment Milestone
- YPF Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Shale Growth & Strong Pricing
- YPF Q2 Earnings Call Spotlights Higher Outlook and Shale Ramp
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
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