Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $11.6B · ISIN US00790R1041
What is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc really worth?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc
WMS · US
A solid business, but trading 27% above our fair value of $106.17.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −10.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($60.88 to $146.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.79 – $177.26 · fair‑value band $60.88 – $146.15 · the $134.83 price screens above the $106.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc (WMS) currently trades at $134.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.17, implying the stock looks roughly 27.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $109.79 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $134.83 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.69, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.1%. Net debt stands at $1.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $60.88 (bear case) to $146.15 (bull case); at $134.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −21%, WMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.04 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($109.79) versus Dividend Discount ($11.69). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments.
Full company description
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermoplastic corrugated pipes and related water management products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Stormwater and Wastewater segments. The company offers single, double, and triple wall corrugated polypropylene and polyethylene pipes; plastic leachfield chambers and systems; EZflow synthetic aggregate bundles; wastewater purification through mechanical aeration wastewater; septic tanks and accessories; combined treatment and dispersal systems, including AeroFin, advanced enviro-septic, enviro-septic, and advanced treatment leachfield; and allied products, including storm retention/detention and septic chambers, polyvinyl chloride drainage structures, fittings, and water quality filters and separators. It also purchases and distributes construction fabrics and other geosynthetic products for soil stabilization, reinforcement, filtration, separation, erosion control, and sub-surface drainage, as well as drainage grates and other products. In addition, the company provides PVC hubs, rubber sleeves, and stainless-steel bands; and channel drains, catch basins, grates, access boxes, and accessories engineered to capture, convey, and disperse stormwater. It offers its products for non-residential, residential, agriculture, and infrastructure applications through a network of distribution centers. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Hilliard, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2026 versus $2.8B in FY2022, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was $426M in FY2026, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +10.4 % · buybacks/dilution −4.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WMS screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Earnings Highlights: Advanced Drainage (NYSE:WMS) Vs The Rest Of The HVAC and Water Systems Stocks
- Advanced Drainage’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions
- Here are the Compelling Reasons to Own Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
- WMS Q2 Deep Dive: Inflation Pressures and Recycling Drive Advanced Drainage’s Outlook
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 243 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $454.31 | $208.50 | −54% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.23 | $44.75 | −69% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $57.25 | $16.85 | −71% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €81.20 | €97.97 | +21% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 577.80 | CHF 307.66 | −47% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $377.25 | $363.09 | −4% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €66.79 | −23% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $74.64 | $53.22 | −29% |
| Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL | $356.53 | $340.70 | −4% |
| BELIMO Holding BEAN | CHF 878.50 | CHF 227.18 | −74% |
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