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Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $194B · ISIN US9581021055

What is Western Digital Corporation really worth?

WD Western Digital Corporation logo Western Digital Corporation WDC · US
Price$441.57
Fair Value$40.37
Upside−90.9% ⚠
Quality71/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 994% above our fair value of $40.37.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 55.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 88/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.7 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $26.96 to $97.52
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100

For context

·0.10% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range $26.96 – $97.52

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated today

Share price −19.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($97.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($26.96 to $97.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$746.23 $22.73 Fair Value $40.37 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.73 – $746.23 · fair‑value band $26.96 – $97.52 · the $441.57 price screens above the $40.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) currently trades at $441.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.37, implying the stock looks roughly 994.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $131.98 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $441.57 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.32, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Western Digital Corporation generated revenue of $11.8B at a net margin of 55.3%. Revenue grew 45.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 85.9%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $26.96 (bear case) to $97.52 (bull case); at $441.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −91%, WDC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $16.51 per share, which is 40.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($1.43 to $151.18). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $41.65 $66.27 $104.25 79
Growth DCF $42.31 $63.94 $95.19 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.81 $17.62 $20.27 77
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $41.65 $66.27 $104.25 79
Owner Earnings $62.32 $98.84 $155.19 75
5Y Revenue Exit $34.91 $55.53 $81.76 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.81 $17.62 $20.27 77
5Y P/E Exit $79.89 $140.35 $204.64 70
10Y Revenue Exit $35.89 $55.38 $81.48 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.08 $28.95 $34.19 70
10Y P/E Exit $65.70 $114.54 $175.99 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $36.71 $118.78 $158.57 64
Lynch FV $26.46 $37.79 $49.13 61
PEG = 1.0 $26.46 $37.79 $49.13 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $113.38 $151.18 $188.97 63
P/S Multiple $68.84 $91.79 $114.73 58
P/B Multiple $68.84 $91.79 $114.73 55
EV/EBITDA $0.8000 $1.43 $2.06 65
EV/Revenue $32.82 $47.35 $61.88 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.70 $10.32 $15.41 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $42.31 $63.94 $95.19 78
Rev-Margin DCF $34.91 $55.67 $79.83 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $38.56 $55.33 $505.76 64
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $92.38 $131.98 $171.57 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($131.98) versus Asset-Based ($10.32). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 26.5
P/S ratio 5.17 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $16.69 price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 2.7%
Net margin 19.5% FY2025
Return on equity 85.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $11.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +45.5% 3y avg −20.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +483%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.3B FY2025
Net debt $3.0B FY2025 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 19
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories.

Full company description

Western Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions based on hard disk drive (HDD) technology in the United States, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers internal HDDs, data center drives, data center platforms, external drives, portable drives, NAS for home and office, and accessories. It sells its data storage devices and solutions through its computer manufacturers, sales personnel, dealers, distributors, and retailers. The company has a collaboration with Open Quantum Design for the development of quantum error correction technology and related systems to advance reliable quantum computing. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Western Digital Corporation reported revenue of $9.5B in FY2025 versus $16.9B in FY2021, a compound −13.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$9.5B
Latest YoY
+50.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−20.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (39Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.1% (2.0 + 0.1)
Revenue −13.4%/yr
FY21 $16.9B
FY22 $18.8B
FY23 $6.3B
FY24 $6.3B
FY25 $9.5B
Net income +22.7%/yr
FY21 $821M
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 −$1.7B
FY24 −$798M
FY25 $1.9B

WDC screens 994% overvalued. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

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Western Digital Corporation · Fair Value
$40.37 −994%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Western Digital Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WDC

Peer Group

Computer Hardware · 222 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −91% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 86% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 55% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.47× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 36.56× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 16.49× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 151.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 49.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.49× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 59
PAST100 · sector 24
HEALTH77 · sector 97
DIVIDEND2 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

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Hygon Information Technology Co 688041 ¥246.21 ¥30.66 −88%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥35.18 ¥40.44 +15%
Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 ¥376.88 ¥91.67 −76%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$30.12 HK$33.70 +12%
Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 ¥83.19 ¥39.38 −53%
HP Inc HPQ $30.52 $48.62 +59%
Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co 000977 ¥73.79 ¥44.02 −40%
Super Micro Computer, Inc SMCI $38.46 $37.09 −4%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Western Digital Corporation (WDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.37 versus a price of $441.57, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WDC?
Our model-based fair value for Western Digital Corporation is $40.37 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $441.57.
What is the quality score of WDC?
Western Digital Corporation has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Western Digital Corporation (WDC)?
Western Digital Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WDC?
The net profit margin of Western Digital Corporation is about 55.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 55.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Western Digital Corporation pay a dividend?
Western Digital Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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