Seagate Technology PLC (STX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $178B · ISIN IE00BKVD2N49
What is Seagate Technology PLC really worth?
Seagate Technology PLC
STX · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A strong business, but trading 1,199% above our fair value of $61.53.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($39.65 to $92.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.60 – $1,093 · fair‑value band $39.65 – $92.58 · the $798.61 price screens above the $61.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Seagate Technology PLC (STX) currently trades at $798.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.53, implying the stock looks roughly 1,198.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $152.19 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $798.61 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $26.65, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Seagate Technology PLC generated revenue of $11.0B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 44.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $39.65 (bear case) to $92.58 (bull case); at $798.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −92%, STX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.64 per share, which is 12.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($152.19) versus Dividend Discount ($26.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
Full company description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Seagate Technology PLC reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2025 versus $10.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +4.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
STX screens 1,199% overvalued. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Seagate's YTD Gains are Double the Industry: Is the Stock Still a Buy?
- Seagate (STX) Stock May Be 30% Undervalued On AI Bubble Fears
- Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) Heads To AI Summit As Investors Ask If The Story Is Priced In
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 222 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $456.24 | $187.75 | −59% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $201.09 | $57.72 | −71% |
| Western Digital Corporation WDC | $441.57 | $47.49 | −89% |
| Hygon Information Technology Co 688041 | ¥246.21 | ¥30.66 | −88% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥35.18 | ¥40.44 | +15% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥376.88 | ¥91.67 | −76% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$30.12 | HK$33.70 | +12% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥83.19 | ¥39.38 | −53% |
| HP Inc HPQ | $30.52 | $48.62 | +59% |
| Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co 000977 | ¥73.79 | ¥44.02 | −40% |
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