Vinhomes JSC (VHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vinhomes JSC stock VND 56,356, price VND 64,300, upside -12.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16,611 VND – 78,963 VND · fair‑value band 35,395 VND – 92,961 VND · the 64,300 VND price screens above the 56,356 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Vinhomes Joint Stock Company develops and sells real estate properties in Vietnam. The company also leases office properties.
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In addition, it provides real estate management and related services; general contractor; consulting and designing construction; and supervision and construction management services.
The company was formerly known as Hanoi Southern City Development Joint Stock Company and changed its name to Vinhomes Joint Stock Company in February 2018. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company operates as a subsidiary of Vingroup Joint Stock Company.
Stock analysis
Vinhomes JSC (VHM) currently trades at 64,300 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56,356 VND, 12.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 82,357 VND per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the 64,300 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 18,939 VND, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 35,395 VND (bear) to 92,961 VND (bull), the price of 64,300 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vinhomes JSC reported revenue of 153T VND in FY2025 versus 85.0T VND in FY2021, a compound +15.9%/yr. Reported net income was 41.9T VND in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 527T VND (≈ $20.4B) Large · P/E ratio 6.5 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) 9,862 VND · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 33.9% · Return on equity 33.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −12%, VHM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear35,395 VNDFair Value 56,356 VNDBull92,961 VND
Price 64,300 VND · Upside -12.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (5,583 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+30.2%) comes with 100% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about −34.9%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price and +12.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Vinhomes gains efficiency potential from its metro infrastructure role aiding large urban projects, yet lacks any durable moat and carries high debt relative to equity.
Main risk: Sharply climbing sector bond yields threaten higher financing costs and could constrain funding for the large urban development pipeline.
Vinhomes acts as general contractor for Hanoi's expanding metro network through the Vingroup Alstom agreement. That infrastructure role could speed delivery on its large urban projects and unlock more of the record backlog, yet sector bond yields have climbed sharply and foreign flows turned negative. Our models see the shares as undervalued, but does the rail work reinforce its core development strength more than it stretches execution capacity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)33.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)187.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vinhomes JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VHM
Frequently asked questions
Is Vinhomes JSC (VHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 56,356 VND versus a price of 64,300 VND, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VHM?
Our model-based fair value for Vinhomes JSC is 56,356 VND (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 64,300 VND.
What is the quality score of VHM?
Vinhomes JSC has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 56,356 VND (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 35,395 VND, optimistic scenario 92,961 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vinhomes JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 56,356 VND, about −12% upside versus a price of 64,300 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 35,395 VND, optimistic scenario 92,961 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Vinhomes JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 236T VND (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Vinhomes JSC pay a dividend?
Vinhomes JSC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.67% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vinhomes JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VHM use?
Our models discount Vinhomes JSC at 14.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.33, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vinhomes JSC that is +11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vinhomes JSC (VHM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vinhomes JSC grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vinhomes JSC (VHM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vinhomes JSC (+11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.75 %: that much free cash flow Vinhomes JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vinhomes JSC it is 56,356 VND per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of 64,300 VND. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vinhomes JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, VHM trades above its calculated fair value: price 64,300 VND, fair value 56,356 VND, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (64,300 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (56,356 VND). For Vinhomes JSC the two are 7,944 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vinhomes JSC worth?
The market values Vinhomes JSC at about 527T VND (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is 64,300 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 56,356 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VHM?
Our models span a range for Vinhomes JSC: cautious scenario 35,395 VND, base 56,356 VND, optimistic 92,961 VND per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price 64,300 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VHM?
Vinhomes JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 56,356 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vinhomes JSC (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 33.5%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VHM from its 52-week high?
Vinhomes JSC trades at 64,300 VND, about 19% below its 52-week high of 78,963 VND and 54% above the low of 41,841 VND (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 56,356 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vinhomes JSC?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vinhomes JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price 64,300 VND, calculated fair value 56,356 VND (−12%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VHM calculated?
We run Vinhomes JSC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 56,356 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Vinhomes JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was 64,300 VND. Our model-based fair value is 56,356 VND, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vinhomes JSC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (35,395 VND to 92,961 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Vinhomes JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The market capitalisation of Vinhomes JSC is 527T VND (≈ $20.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vinhomes JSC is 2.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Earnings per share at Vinhomes JSC are 9,862 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The dividend yield of Vinhomes JSC is 4.7% (payout 30.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The net margin of Vinhomes JSC is 33.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vinhomes JSC is 33.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vinhomes JSC is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
The operating margin of Vinhomes JSC is 63.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Revenue at Vinhomes JSC is growing +188% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vinhomes JSC (VHM)?
Earnings per share at Vinhomes JSC are growing +201% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vinhomes JSC (VHM) carry?
The net debt of Vinhomes JSC is 96.3T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026