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China Overseas (0688) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$132B (≈ $16.8B) · ISIN HK0688002218

What is China Overseas really worth?

CO China Overseas 0688 · HK
PriceHK$13.17
Fair ValueHK$22.92
Upside+74.0%
Quality52/100

A solid business, trading 43% below our fair value of HK$22.92.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100

For context

·4.18% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$15.63 – HK$28.65

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$22.88 to HK$22.92 (+0.2%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price −0.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$15.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$15.63 to HK$28.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$21.95 HK$9.16 Fair Value HK$22.92 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$9.16 – HK$21.95 · fair‑value band HK$15.63 – HK$28.65 · the HK$13.17 price screens below the HK$22.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Overseas (0688) currently trades at HK$13.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$22.92, implying the stock looks roughly 42.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$25.23 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$13.17 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$10.25, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Overseas generated revenue of HK$168B at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue declined 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at HK$144B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$15.63 (bear case) to HK$28.65 (bull case); at HK$13.17, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 74%, 0688 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1624 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$25.88 HK$25.23 HK$21.67 76
FCF DCF HK$2.06 HK$10.96 HK$26.27 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.81 HK$26.55 HK$47.66 71
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.06 HK$10.96 HK$26.27 71
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.93 HK$18.64 HK$36.02 67
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.81 HK$26.55 HK$47.66 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$3.94 HK$15.56 HK$33.55 60
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$7.08 HK$21.33 HK$43.22 63
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$14.78 HK$19.70 HK$24.63 58
P/B Multiple HK$14.78 HK$19.70 HK$24.63 55
EV/EBIT HK$22.10 HK$32.56 HK$43.02 65
EV/EBITDA HK$15.50 HK$23.75 HK$32.00 66
EV/Revenue HK$8.04 HK$15.45 HK$22.86 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$17.73 HK$23.76 HK$35.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.01 HK$10.25 HK$24.09 69
Rev-Margin DCF HK$5.93 HK$18.20 HK$33.88 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$25.88 HK$25.23 HK$21.67 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$25.23) versus Growth DCF (HK$10.25). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.68 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.7900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0
Dividend yield 4.2% payout 69.6%
Net margin 7.6% FY2025
Return on equity 3.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$168B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −13.6% 3y avg −3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) −23.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$9.7B FY2025
Net debt HK$144B FY2025 · ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, commercial property operations, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Macau.

Full company description

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, commercial property operations, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom, and Macau. It is involved in the rental of properties; material procurement and supply chain management activities; issuance of guaranteed notes; property consultancy and real estate agency; and construction and building design consultancy activities. The company provides loan financing and security investment services; operates hotels; and develops and sells properties. In addition, the company engages in the investment and financing, land consolidation, regional planning, real estate development, engineering construction, industrial import, and property management businesses. Further, it offers urban services, including office buildings, flexible working space, shopping malls, star-rated hotels, long-term rental apartments, logistics parks, and architectural design and construction. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. China Overseas Land & Investment Limited is a subsidiary of China Overseas Holdings Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Overseas reported revenue of 168B CNY in FY2025 versus 242B CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 12.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding −25.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$168B
Latest YoY
−9.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (29Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−16.9% (−21.1 + 4.2)
Revenue −8.7%/yr
FY21 242B CNY
FY22 187B CNY
FY23 203B CNY
FY24 185B CNY
FY25 168B CNY
Net income −25.0%/yr
FY21 40.2B CNY
FY22 23.3B CNY
FY23 25.6B CNY
FY24 15.6B CNY
FY25 12.7B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −8.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.3 %

of which total revenue +2.2 % · buybacks/dilution −1.9 %

EBIT margin −5.2 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Overseas · Fair Value
HK$22.92 +43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Overseas Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0688

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 567 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +74% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Below median
Revenue growth −14% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.53× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.46× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 45
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST13 · sector 11
HEALTH74 · sector 85
DIVIDEND84 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 HK$109.70 HK$88.93 −19%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$35.24 HK$72.16 +105%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 71,700 VND 109,431 VND +53%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$47.34 HK$68.85 +45%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.20 $1.52 −81%
DLF Limited DLF ₹667.10 ₹170.24 −74%
Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,244 ₹583.42 −53%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.33 HK$6.99 −32%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 5,925 IDR 1,325 IDR −78%
CTP N.V CTPNV €14.36 €13.00 −9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Overseas (0688) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$22.92 versus a price of HK$13.17, about +74% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0688?
Our model-based fair value for China Overseas is HK$22.92 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$13.17.
What is the quality score of 0688?
China Overseas has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Overseas (0688)?
China Overseas reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$168B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0688?
The net profit margin of China Overseas is about 7.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Overseas pay a dividend?
China Overseas currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.18% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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