HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock $1.52, price $8.20, upside -81.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.56 – $8.74 · fair‑value band $1.52 – $2.32 · the $8.20 price screens above the $1.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
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Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell.
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The company owns and manages mixed-use real estate, including offices, luxury retail, residential, and hospitality products in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai. It is also involved in hotel investment, finance, and project management businesses.
The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.
Stock analysis
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) currently trades at $8.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.52, 81.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $11.58 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $8.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.9300, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.52 (bear) to $2.32 (bull), the price of $8.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $17.7B Large · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 6.62 · EPS (TTM) $1.08 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 87.2% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −81%, H78 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2100 to $28.92). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$1.52Fair Value $1.52Bull$2.32
Price $8.20 · Upside -81.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6591 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+50.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−119% → 21%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price and −2.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business exhibits modest competitive durability in a challenging sector thanks to stable leasing income, yet it remains constrained by low returns on equity and dependence on one-time gains amid cyclical development activity.
Main risk: Reliance on property cycles in the real estate development model could limit the build-up of recurring earnings from the expanded fund and pipeline.
Hongkong Land keeps repurchasing shares while recycling capital to fund new acquisitions and its third-party platform. This comes as the group moves from optimisation into growth, with leasing income stable but development activity winding down. Will the expanded fund and pipeline add enough recurring earnings to strengthen the business, or will reliance on property cycles and financing savings cap the progress?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 574 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−81.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)173.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)48.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)13.31× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow42.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA63.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.87× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 67
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)66· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H78
Frequently asked questions
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.52 versus a price of $8.20, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H78?
Our model-based fair value for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $1.52 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.20.
What is the quality score of H78?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.52 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $2.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.52, about −81% upside versus a price of $8.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.52, optimistic scenario $2.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
Does HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED pay a dividend?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of 3.29% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by +21.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.1 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H78 use?
Our models discount HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED that is +21.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED grew -7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +21.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (+21.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.37 %: that much free cash flow HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED it is $1.52 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $8.20. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, H78 trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.20, fair value $1.52, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H78?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.52). For HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED the two are $6.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED worth?
The market values HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED at about $17.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $8.20; our models calculate a fair value of $1.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H78?
Our models span a range for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED: cautious scenario $1.52, base $1.52, optimistic $2.32 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $8.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of H78?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.52 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 39.2 (reported for FY2025: 14.0). Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 0.6, P/S 13.3, EV/EBITDA 63.3.
What is the PEG ratio of H78?
The PEG ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 1.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Balance-sheet figures for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H78 from its 52-week high?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED trades at $8.20, about 6% below its 52-week high of $8.74 and 41% above the low of $5.81 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $8.20, calculated fair value $1.52 (−81%), Quality Score 63/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H78 calculated?
We run HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $8.20. Our model-based fair value is $1.52, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The market capitalisation of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $17.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 6.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Earnings per share at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED are $1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The dividend yield of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 3.3% (payout 69.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 25.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The net margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 87.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
The operating margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is 48.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Revenue at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is growing −15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
Earnings per share at HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED are growing +484% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) carry?
The net debt of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $3.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 20, 2026