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HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · SG · Market cap $18.0B · ISIN BMG4587L1090

What is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED really worth?

HL HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED H78 · SG
Price$8.55
Fair Value$1.52
Upside−82.2% ⚠
Quality66/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 462% above our fair value of $1.52.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 173.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.1 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·3.16% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range $1.52 – $2.32

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +9.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$8.62 $2.56 Fair Value $1.52 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.56 – $8.62 · fair‑value band $1.52 – $2.32 · the $8.55 price screens above the $1.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) currently trades at $8.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.52, implying the stock looks roughly 462.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $10.77 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $8.55 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.5900, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 87.2%. Revenue declined 32.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at $3.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.52 (bear case) to $2.32 (bull case); at $8.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −82%, H78 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5368 per share, which is 35.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.3500 to $10.77). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $10.82 $10.77 $9.80 76
FCF DCF $0.3800 $1.13 $2.52 73
Growth DCF $0.4600 $1.19 $2.44 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.3800 $1.13 $2.52 73
5Y Revenue Exit — $0.5400 $1.41 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.2200 $1.02 $2.07 68
10Y Revenue Exit $0.0600 $0.5200 $1.01 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $0.2600 $0.8200 $1.40 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.17 $2.37 $2.68 69
DDM Multi-Stage $2.17 $2.72 $3.49 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $3.31 $4.42 $5.52 58
P/B Multiple $7.56 $10.08 $12.60 55
EV/EBIT $0.8600 $1.66 $2.46 63
EV/EBITDA $0.4000 $1.05 $1.69 62
EV/Revenue — $0.3500 $0.9200 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.23 $9.68 $14.45 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.4600 $1.19 $2.44 72
Rev-Margin DCF — $0.5900 $1.38 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $10.82 $10.77 $9.80 76

Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($10.77) versus Growth DCF ($0.5900). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.7
P/S ratio 12.9 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.5800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7
Dividend yield 3.2% payout 46.6%
Net margin 87.2% FY2025
Return on equity 4.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 2.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −32.3% 3y avg −13.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −63.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $420M FY2025
Net debt $3.6B FY2025 · ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell.

Full company description

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the investment, development, and management of properties in Hong Kong, Macau, Mainland China, Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Prime Properties Investment and Build-to-Sell. The company owns and manages mixed-use real estate, including offices, luxury retail, residential, and hospitality products in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai. It is also involved in hotel investment, finance, and project management businesses. The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.4B
Latest YoY
−27.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−13.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+50.3% (47.1 + 3.2)
Revenue −11.7%/yr
FY21 $2.4B
FY22 $2.2B
FY23 $1.8B
FY24 $2.0B
FY25 $1.4B
Net income
FY21 −$349M
FY22 $203M
FY23 −$582M
FY24 −$1.4B
FY25 $1.3B

H78 screens 462% overvalued. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →

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$1.52 −462%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H78

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 567 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 173% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 48% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −16% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.19× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 13.56× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 42.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 64.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.41× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 45
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST30 · sector 11
HEALTH91 · sector 85
DIVIDEND63 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 HK$109.70 HK$88.93 −19%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$35.24 HK$72.16 +105%
Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM 71,700 VND 109,431 VND +53%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$47.34 HK$68.85 +45%
DLF Limited DLF ₹667.10 ₹170.24 −74%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$13.76 HK$22.92 +67%
Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,244 ₹583.42 −53%
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.33 HK$6.99 −32%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 5,925 IDR 1,325 IDR −78%
CTP N.V CTPNV €14.36 €13.00 −9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.52 versus a price of $8.55, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H78?
Our model-based fair value for HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is $1.52 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.55.
What is the quality score of H78?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED (H78)?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of H78?
The net profit margin of HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED is about 87.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 87.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED pay a dividend?
HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.16% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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