TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $6.3B · ISIN US69349H1077
What is TXNM Energy, Inc. really worth?
TXNM Energy, Inc.
TXNM · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 136% above our fair value of $24.61.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +0.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.27 – $59.48 · fair‑value band $18.46 – $30.76 · the $58.14 price screens above the $24.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) currently trades at $58.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.61, implying the stock looks roughly 136.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $23.31 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $58.14 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.79, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, TXNM Energy, Inc. generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 41.2. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.46 (bear case) to $30.76 (bull case); at $58.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −58%, TXNM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($23.31) versus Earnings-Based ($9.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate.
Full company description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate. It also provides regulated transmission and distribution services in Texas, as well as owns and leases vehicles, service facilities, and office locations throughout its service territory. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers and end-users of electricity in New Mexico and Texas. The company was formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc and changed its name to TXNM Energy, Inc. in August 2024. TXNM Energy, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TXNM Energy, Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $151M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
TXNM screens 136% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TXNM Energy Inc's Dividend Analysis
- TXNM Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- TXNM Energy declares $0.4225 dividend
- TXNM Energy Board Declares Quarterly Common Stock Dividend
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $83.47 | $32.94 | −61% |
| The Southern Company SO | $88.25 | $58.81 | −33% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $120.25 | $74.89 | −38% |
| National Grid plc NGG | $80.68 | $63.94 | −21% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $122.96 | $77.23 | −37% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $66.01 | $46.34 | −30% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $105.75 | $52.92 | −50% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $76.34 | $44.61 | −42% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $43.96 | $37.60 | −14% |
| Endesa, S.A ELE | €42.30 | €25.72 | −39% |
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