Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $98.3B
Duke Energy Corporation
DUK · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $97.11 to $74.89 (−22.9%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($51.46 to $122.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $74.29 – $132.32 · fair‑value band $51.46 – $122.68 · the $124.49 price screens above the $74.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) currently trades at $124.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.89, implying the stock looks roughly 39.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Duke Energy Corporation generated revenue of $32.7B at a net margin of 15.7%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at $90.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $51.46 (bear case) to $122.68 (bull case); at $124.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -40%, DUK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($97.11) versus Economic Profit ($7.58). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Duke Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I); and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I).
Full company description
Duke Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I); and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to customers in the Southeast and Midwest regions. It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving entities. The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas sectors; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Duke Energy Corporation reported revenue of $32.2B in FY2025 versus $25.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DUK screens 40% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- More than 160,000 Duke Energy customers in Ohio and Kentucky remain without power as second round of storms is expected
- Duke Energy and Piedmont Natural Gas urge everyone to call 811 before digging
- Duke Energy announces pricing of equity units offering
- Duke Energy announces equity units offering
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $85.78 | $32.94 | -62% |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.52 | $58.81 | -36% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,886 ARS | -27% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹339.45 | ₹375.02 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 244.80 PLN | 167.29 PLN | -32% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹269.45 | ₹252.77 | -6% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.81 | ¥6.73 | -24% |
| CLP Holdings 0002 | HK$77.90 | HK$42.12 | -46% |
| Tenaga Nasional Berhad 5347 | 14.58 MYR | 14.72 MYR | +1% |
| CK Infrastructure Holdings 1038 | HK$61.00 | HK$42.74 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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