Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Duke Energy Corporation stock $75.79, price $121, upside -37.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $73.64 – $131.16 · fair‑value band $56.85 – $122.66 · the $120.67 price screens above the $75.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Duke Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States.
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The company operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I); and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I). The EU&I segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to customers in the Southeast and Midwest regions.
It generates electricity through coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewables, and nuclear fuel. This segment also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving entities.
The GU&I segment distributes natural gas to customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas sectors; and invests in pipeline transmission projects, renewable natural gas projects, and natural gas storage facilities.
The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2006. Duke Energy Corporation was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) currently trades at $120.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.79, 37.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $97.09 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $120.67 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $20.16, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $56.85 (bear) to $122.66 (bull), the price of $120.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Duke Energy Corporation reported revenue of $32.2B in FY2025 versus $25.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding +8.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $94.0B Large · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) $6.75 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −37%, DUK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.85Fair Value $75.79Bull$122.66
Price $120.67 · Upside -37.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.6% vs 4.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 27%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Regulated returns and infrastructure scale support a moderate moat, yet high leverage and negative free cash flow remain the key constraints.
Main risk: Financing pressures from the largest regulated capital plan and significant equity issuance risk limiting returns despite new load commitments.
Duke Energy reached an agreement with North Carolina regulators and major tech companies to require data centers to cover upfront grid costs and meet minimum load commitments. This comes as the company ramps up its largest regulated capital plan to serve that demand, including plans for significant equity issuance. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will customer protections and new load growth offset the financing pressures and regulatory hurdles?
Compare Duke Energy Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−37.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)27.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.87× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.5× · Pricier than median
PEG2.13× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)6· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)23· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Duke Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUK
Frequently asked questions
Is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.79 versus a price of $120.67, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DUK?
Our model-based fair value for Duke Energy Corporation is $75.79 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $120.67.
What is the quality score of DUK?
Duke Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.79 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.85, optimistic scenario $122.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duke Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.79, about −37% upside versus a price of $120.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.85, optimistic scenario $122.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Duke Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $32.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Duke Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Duke Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duke Energy Corporation it is $75.79 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $120.67. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duke Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, DUK trades above its calculated fair value: price $120.67, fair value $75.79, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($120.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.79). For Duke Energy Corporation the two are $44.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duke Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Duke Energy Corporation at about $94.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $120.67; our models calculate a fair value of $75.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUK?
Our models span a range for Duke Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $56.85, base $75.79, optimistic $122.66 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $120.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUK?
Duke Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.79 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 18.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
What is the PEG ratio of DUK?
The PEG ratio of Duke Energy Corporation is 2.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duke Energy Corporation (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUK from its 52-week high?
Duke Energy Corporation trades at $120.67, about 8% below its 52-week high of $131.16 and 9% above the low of $111.09 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duke Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, American Electric Power Company, Dominion Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duke Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $120.67, calculated fair value $75.79 (−37%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUK calculated?
We run Duke Energy Corporation through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $75.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Duke Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $120.67. Our model-based fair value is $75.79, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duke Energy Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($56.85 to $122.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) come from?
Earnings per share at Duke Energy Corporation grew +4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Duke Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The market capitalisation of Duke Energy Corporation is $94.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duke Energy Corporation is 2.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Earnings per share at Duke Energy Corporation are $6.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The dividend yield of Duke Energy Corporation is 3.5% (payout 63.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The net margin of Duke Energy Corporation is 16.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duke Energy Corporation is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duke Energy Corporation is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
The operating margin of Duke Energy Corporation is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Revenue at Duke Energy Corporation is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)?
Earnings per share at Duke Energy Corporation are growing +10.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) generate?
The free cash flow of Duke Energy Corporation is −$1.7B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) carry?
The net debt of Duke Energy Corporation is $90.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026