Exelon Corporation (EXC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Exelon Corporation stock $36.01, price $43.05, upside -16.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.15 – $49.35 · fair‑value band $25.17 – $53.94 · the $43.05 price screens above the $36.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States.
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The company is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and public authorities and electric railroads customers.
Exelon Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Exelon Corporation (EXC) currently trades at $43.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.01, 16.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $41.49 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $43.05 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $10.25, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.17 (bear) to $53.94 (bull), the price of $43.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Exelon Corporation reported revenue of $24.3B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +12.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $44.3B Large · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 1.75 · EPS (TTM) $2.72 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −16%, EXC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.17Fair Value $36.01Bull$53.94
Price $43.05 · Upside -16.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8729 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Per share before 2022divided by the spin-off factor 1.402
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.8% vs 7.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 21%
AI conclusion: Regulated infrastructure scale supports transmission growth for data centers but high leverage and weak free cash flow constrain moat durability.
Main risk: Regulatory approval challenges and cost pressures could hinder the expansion of transmission projects and the associated regulated returns.
Exelon’s regulated utilities are expanding transmission capacity to meet rising electricity demand from data centers and to strengthen grid reliability. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the steady returns from these projects offset the challenges of regulatory approval and cost pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.7% · Below median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)16.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exelon Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXC
Frequently asked questions
Is Exelon Corporation (EXC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.01 versus a price of $43.05, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXC?
Our model-based fair value for Exelon Corporation is $36.01 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.05.
What is the quality score of EXC?
Exelon Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.01 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.17, optimistic scenario $53.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exelon Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.01, about −16% upside versus a price of $43.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.17, optimistic scenario $53.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Exelon Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Exelon Corporation pay a dividend?
Exelon Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exelon Corporation it is $36.01 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $43.05. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exelon Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, EXC trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.05, fair value $36.01, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.01). For Exelon Corporation the two are $7.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exelon Corporation worth?
The market values Exelon Corporation at about $44.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $43.05; our models calculate a fair value of $36.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXC?
Our models span a range for Exelon Corporation: cautious scenario $25.17, base $36.01, optimistic $53.94 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $43.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXC?
Exelon Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EXC?
The PEG ratio of Exelon Corporation is 2.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exelon Corporation (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 1.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXC from its 52-week high?
Exelon Corporation trades at $43.05, about 13% below its 52-week high of $49.35 and 7% above the low of $40.20 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exelon Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exelon Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $43.05, calculated fair value $36.01 (−16%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXC calculated?
We run Exelon Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $36.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Exelon Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $43.05. Our model-based fair value is $36.01, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exelon Corporation right now?
Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($25.17 to $53.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Exelon Corporation (EXC) come from?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corporation grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.9 %, EBIT margin +5.4 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Exelon Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The market capitalisation of Exelon Corporation is $44.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exelon Corporation is 1.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corporation are $2.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The dividend yield of Exelon Corporation is 3.8% (payout 60.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The net margin of Exelon Corporation is 11.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exelon Corporation is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exelon Corporation is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
The operating margin of Exelon Corporation is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Revenue at Exelon Corporation is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exelon Corporation (EXC)?
Earnings per share at Exelon Corporation are growing −0.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Exelon Corporation (EXC) generate?
The free cash flow of Exelon Corporation is −$2.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Exelon Corporation (EXC) carry?
The net debt of Exelon Corporation is $49.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026