Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $48.2B · ISIN US98389B1008
What is Xcel Energy Inc really worth?
Xcel Energy Inc
XEL · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 71% above our fair value of $44.61.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price −1.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($33.08 to $68.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.51 – $82.67 · fair‑value band $33.08 – $68.65 · the $76.34 price screens above the $44.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) currently trades at $76.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.61, implying the stock looks roughly 71.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $48.14 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the $76.34 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $13.47, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Xcel Energy Inc generated revenue of $14.8B at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $34.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $33.08 (bear case) to $68.65 (bull case); at $76.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −42%, XEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7929 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($48.14) versus Earnings-Based ($13.47). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas delivery company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility segments.
Full company description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas delivery company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility segments. The company generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity through its energy portfolio, including wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar power from both owned generation facilities and PPAs, as well as its fossil fuel energy portfolio, such as coal and natural gas; sale and resale of wholesale transmission service; and engages in wholesale commodity and trading operations. It also purchases, transports, stores, distributes, and sells natural gas; develops and leases natural gas pipelines and storage facilities; operates interstate natural gas pipeline; and invests in rental housing projects, energy technology companies, and community solar garden nonregulated assets. It serves electric and natural gas customers in portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company was formerly known as Northern States Power company. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xcel Energy Inc reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
XEL screens 71% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can XEL's Strategic Capital Investments Drive Long-Term Growth?
- Xcel Energy Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $83.47 | $32.94 | −61% |
| The Southern Company SO | $88.25 | $58.81 | −33% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $120.25 | $74.89 | −38% |
| National Grid plc NGG | $80.68 | $63.94 | −21% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $122.96 | $77.23 | −37% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $66.01 | $46.34 | −30% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $105.75 | $52.92 | −50% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $43.96 | $37.60 | −14% |
| Endesa, S.A ELE | €42.30 | €25.72 | −39% |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc ED | $107.70 | $62.35 | −42% |
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