Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $50.0B
Xcel Energy Inc
XEL · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $45.84 to $44.64 (−2.6%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($33.10 to $68.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.51 – $82.67 · fair‑value band $33.10 – $68.69 · the $78.98 price screens above the $44.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) currently trades at $78.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.64, implying the stock looks roughly 43.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xcel Energy Inc generated revenue of $14.8B at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $34.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $33.10 (bear case) to $68.69 (bull case); at $78.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -43%, XEL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($48.17) versus Earnings-Based ($13.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas delivery company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility segments.
Full company description
Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas delivery company in the United States. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility segments. The company generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity through its energy portfolio, including wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar power from both owned generation facilities and PPAs, as well as its fossil fuel energy portfolio, such as coal and natural gas; sale and resale of wholesale transmission service; and engages in wholesale commodity and trading operations. It also purchases, transports, stores, distributes, and sells natural gas; develops and leases natural gas pipelines and storage facilities; operates interstate natural gas pipeline; and invests in rental housing projects, energy technology companies, and community solar garden nonregulated assets. It serves electric and natural gas customers in portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company was formerly known as Northern States Power company. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Xcel Energy Inc reported revenue of $14.7B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
XEL screens 43% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Xcel Energy Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
- Xcel Energy Foundation Celebrates 25 Years of Community Investment
- Options Traders: Xcel Energy (XEL) Stock Just Might Offer Robust Positive Expectancy
- Xcel Energy (XEL) Appoints Delta President Peter Carter To Its Board
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $85.78 | $32.94 | -62% |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.52 | $58.81 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $123.19 | $74.89 | -39% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,886 ARS | -27% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹339.45 | ₹375.02 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 244.80 PLN | 167.29 PLN | -32% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹269.45 | ₹252.77 | -6% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.81 | ¥6.73 | -24% |
| CLP Holdings 0002 | HK$77.90 | HK$42.12 | -46% |
| Tenaga Nasional Berhad 5347 | 14.58 MYR | 14.72 MYR | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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