TC Energy Corp (TRP) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $70.1B · ISIN CA87807B1076
What is TC Energy Corp really worth?
TC Energy Corp
TRP · US
A solid business, but trading 157% above our fair value of $24.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 14, 2026, revised from $47.12 to $24.51 (−48.0%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −3.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band ($22.95 to $24.51), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.50 – $70.59 · fair‑value band $22.95 – $24.51 · the $62.88 price screens above the $24.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
TC Energy Corp (TRP) currently trades at $62.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.51, implying the stock looks roughly 156.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $48.23 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $62.88 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.62, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, TC Energy Corp generated revenue of $15.5B at a net margin of 22.2%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at $60.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.95 (bear case) to $24.51 (bull case); at $62.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −61%, TRP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0174 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($48.23) versus Economic Profit ($4.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions.
Full company description
TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; and Power and Energy Solutions. The company builds and operates a network of 94,171 kilometers of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses. It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 532 billion cubic feet. In addition, the company owns or has interests in power generation facilities with approximately 4,650 megawatts; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage facilities in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick. The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019. TC Energy Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TC Energy Corp reported revenue of $15.2B in FY2025 versus $13.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.5B in FY2025, compounding +15.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.4 % · buybacks/dilution −3.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TRP screens 157% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Will Stronger Operating Trends Amid Volatile Markets Change TC Energy's (TSX:TRP) Narrative?
- TC Energy (TSX:TRP) Could Be 13% Undervalued After Its Recent Share Price Slide
- TC Energy (TSX:TRP) Stock Stays Near Fair Value On Cash Flow Questions
- TC Energy Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates, Rise Y/Y
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $50.72 | $35.83 | −29% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $74.05 | $11.73 | −84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $39.02 | $20.94 | −46% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $31.60 | $10.92 | −65% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $21.31 | $11.45 | −46% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $59.25 | $36.42 | −39% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $95.69 | $58.62 | −39% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $286.91 | $79.61 | −72% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $280.80 | $199.99 | −29% |
| Venture Global, Inc VG | $13.72 | $14.00 | +2% |
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