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Energy Transfer LP (ET) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $64.5B · ISIN US29273V1008

What is Energy Transfer LP really worth?

ET Energy Transfer LP logo Energy Transfer LP ET · US
Price$21.44
Fair Value$11.45
Upside−46.6%
Quality38/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 87% above our fair value of $11.45.

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Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +16.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 56/100
!The models disagree: range $11.45 to $29.50
!Weak on balance sheet: 1 out of 100

For context

·6.23% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $11.45 – $29.50

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +5.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range ($11.45 to $29.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$21.54 $5.67 Fair Value $11.45 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.67 – $21.54 · fair‑value band $11.45 – $29.50 · the $21.44 price screens above the $11.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Energy Transfer LP (ET) currently trades at $21.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.45, implying the stock looks roughly 87.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.69 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $21.44 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.14, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Energy Transfer LP generated revenue of $92.3B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 32.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.4%. Net debt stands at $70.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.45 (bear case) to $29.50 (bull case); at $21.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −47%, ET screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $7.38 $28.96 77
Growth DCF $6.14 $25.19 75
Owner Earnings $10.41 $34.42 73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $7.38 $28.96 77
Owner Earnings $10.41 $34.42 73
5Y Revenue Exit $14.50 $36.15 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $12.08 $30.36 72
5Y P/E Exit $5.75 $18.53 68
10Y Revenue Exit $11.33 $34.34 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $9.55 $29.44 65
10Y P/E Exit $4.88 $19.45 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.68 $46.43 $63.91 64
Lynch FV $12.38 $17.69 $23.00 61
PEG = 1.0 $12.38 $17.69 $23.00 57
EPV $4.06 $7.98 $11.40 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.95 $19.94 $24.92 63
P/S Multiple $18.16 $24.21 $30.26 58
P/B Multiple $13.48 $17.98 $22.47 55
EV/EBIT $1.12 $7.98 $14.83 58
EV/EBITDA $0.3200 $6.91 $13.50 58
EV/Revenue $0.7100 $9.36 $18.00 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.99 $6.69 $9.99 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.14 $25.19 75
Rev-Margin DCF $13.92 $33.60 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.80 $12.59 $32.31 68
ROIC Compounder $4.06 $7.98 $13.45 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $15.89 $22.69 $29.50 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($22.69) versus Growth DCF ($6.14). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 17.9
P/S ratio 1.06 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.20 price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9
Dividend yield 6.2% payout 111%
Net margin 5.9% FY2025
Return on equity 12.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $92.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.1% 3y avg −2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −3.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $3.8B FY2025
Net debt $70.3B FY2025 · ≈ 18.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 18
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Energy Transfer LP, together with its subsidiaries, provides energy-related services in the United States. It operates through Intrastate Transportation and Storage; Interstate Transportation and Storage; Midstream; Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Refined Products Transportation and Services; Crude Oil Transportation and Services; Investment in Sunoco LP; …

Full company description

Energy Transfer LP, together with its subsidiaries, provides energy-related services in the United States. It operates through Intrastate Transportation and Storage; Interstate Transportation and Storage; Midstream; Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Refined Products Transportation and Services; Crude Oil Transportation and Services; Investment in Sunoco LP; Investment in USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC); and All Other segments. The company owns and operates natural gas transportation pipelines and storage facilities; and approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate natural gas transportation pipelines and 20,090 miles of interstate natural gas pipelines. It also sells natural gas to electric utilities, independent power plants, local distribution and other marketing companies, and industrial end-users. In addition, the company owns and operates natural gas gathering pipelines, processing plants, and treating and conditioning facilities; and natural gas gathering, compression, treating, dehydration and processing, oil pipeline facilities. Further, it owns 5,700 miles of NGL pipelines; NGL fractionation and storage facilities; and other NGL storage assets and terminals. Additionally, the company provides crude oil transportation, terminalling, trucking, acquisition, and marketing activities; owns and operates approximately 18,000 miles of crude oil trunk and gathering pipelines; and sells and distributes motor fuels and other petroleum products under the Sunoco and EcoMaxx brands. It also offers natural gas compression; wholesale power trading; and carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide removal services, as well as management of coal and natural resources properties; sells standing timber; leases coal-related infrastructure facilities; and collects oil and gas royalties. The company was formerly known as Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. and changed its name to Energy Transfer LP in October 2018. Energy Transfer LP was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Energy Transfer LP reported revenue of $82.6B in FY2025 versus $67.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$82.6B
Latest YoY
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.0% (−4.2 + 6.2)
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY21 $67.4B
FY22 $89.9B
FY23 $78.6B
FY24 $82.7B
FY25 $82.6B
Net income −2.7%/yr
FY21 $5.5B
FY22 $4.8B
FY23 $3.9B
FY24 $4.8B
FY25 $4.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −6.1 %

of which total revenue +6.8 % · buybacks/dilution −12.0 %

EBIT margin +9.5 %
Tax rate −0.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ET screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Energy Transfer LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ET

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Below median
Revenue growth 32% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.99× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.70× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 16.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.56× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 44
PAST49 · sector 42
HEALTH1 · sector 54
DIVIDEND100 · sector 80

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $50.72 $35.83 −29%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $74.05 $11.73 −84%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $39.02 $20.94 −46%
TC Energy Corporation TRP C$88.72 C$24.53 −72%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $31.60 $10.92 −65%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $59.25 $36.42 −39%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $95.69 $58.62 −39%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $286.91 $79.61 −72%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $280.80 $199.99 −29%
Venture Global, Inc VG $13.72 $14.00 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Energy Transfer LP (ET) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.45 versus a price of $21.44, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ET?
Our model-based fair value for Energy Transfer LP is $11.45 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.44.
What is the quality score of ET?
Energy Transfer LP has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Energy Transfer LP (ET)?
Energy Transfer LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $92.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ET?
The net profit margin of Energy Transfer LP is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Energy Transfer LP pay a dividend?
Energy Transfer LP currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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