MPLX LP (MPLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $59.7B · ISIN US55336V1008
What is MPLX LP really worth?
MPLX LP
MPLX · US
A solid business, but trading 63% above our fair value of $36.42.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −0.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($25.08 to $122.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.51 – $59.94 · fair‑value band $25.08 – $122.55 · the $59.34 price screens above the $36.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
MPLX LP (MPLX) currently trades at $59.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.42, implying the stock looks roughly 62.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $110.93 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the $59.34 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.45, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, MPLX LP generated revenue of $11.7B at a net margin of 40.0%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. Net debt stands at $24.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.08 (bear case) to $122.55 (bull case); at $59.34, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −39%, MPLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2949 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($110.93) versus Asset-Based ($9.45). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Products Logistics; and Natural Gas and NGL Services.
Full company description
MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Products Logistics; and Natural Gas and NGL Services. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas; gathering, transportation, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids; gathering, storage, transportation, and distribution of crude oil and refined products, as well as other hydrocarbon-based products and renewables; and sale of residue gas and condensate. It also engages in inland marine businesses, comprising fleet of boats and barges transport light products, heavy oils, crude oil, renewable fuels, chemicals, and feedstocks in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, as well as a marine repair facility located on the Ohio River; and distribution of fuel, as well as operates refining logistics, terminals, rail facilities, and storage caverns. In addition, it operates terminal facilities for the receipt, storage, blending, additization, handling, and redelivery of refined petroleum products through the pipeline, rail, marine, and truck transportation. MPLX GP LLC acts as the general partner of MPLX LP. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. MPLX LP operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MPLX LP reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $9.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9B in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +24.6 % · buybacks/dilution −18.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MPLX screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Energy Transfer vs. MPLX: Which Midstream Stock Has an Edge?
- MPLX (MPLX) Could Be 5% Undervalued Following The Solitude Pipeline Approval
- MPLX (MPLX) Joins Permian To Gulf Coast Gas Pipeline Venture After Final Approval
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $50.72 | $35.83 | −29% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $74.05 | $11.73 | −84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $39.02 | $20.94 | −46% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$88.72 | C$24.53 | −72% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $31.60 | $10.92 | −65% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $21.31 | $11.45 | −46% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $95.69 | $58.62 | −39% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $286.91 | $79.61 | −72% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $280.80 | $199.99 | −29% |
| Venture Global, Inc VG | $13.72 | $14.00 | +2% |
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