Trex Company Inc (TREX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.7B · ISIN US89531P1057
What is Trex Company Inc really worth?
Trex Company Inc
TREX · US
A solid business, but trading 36% above our fair value of $32.06.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −7.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($17.86 to $48.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.13 – $140.68 · fair‑value band $17.86 – $48.02 · the $43.69 price screens above the $32.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Trex Company Inc (TREX) currently trades at $43.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.06, implying the stock looks roughly 36.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.44 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $43.69 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.67, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Trex Company Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.1%. Net debt stands at $225M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.86 (bear case) to $48.02 (bull case); at $43.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −27%, TREX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.22 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($33.44) versus Asset-Based ($6.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and sells composite decking and railing products in the United States. It offers decking products and accessories that can be used for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching, including Trex Transcend, which are decking products that can also be used as cladding; Trex Signature; Trex Transcend Lineage; Trex …
Full company description
Trex Company, Inc. manufactures and sells composite decking and railing products in the United States. It offers decking products and accessories that can be used for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching, including Trex Transcend, which are decking products that can also be used as cladding; Trex Signature; Trex Transcend Lineage; Trex Select; Trex Enhance; Trex Hideaway fastener collection; and Trex DeckLighting, an outdoor lighting system that includes a post cap, deck rail, riser, a soffit, and a recessed deck lights. The company also offers railing products, such as Trex Signature X-Series Railing, Trex Signature aluminum railing, Trex Transcend Railing, Trex Select Railing, Trex Select T-Rail, Trex Enhance Railing; and fencing products, which includes Trex Seclusions that consists of structural posts, bottom rails, pickets, top rails, and decorative post caps. In addition, it acts as a licensor in various licensing agreements with third parties to manufacture and sell products under the Trex name, including Trex Outdoor Furniture; Trex RainEscape, an above joist deck drainage system; Trex Protect joist, beam and rim tape, a self-adhesive butyl tape that protects wooden deck framing/substructure elements; Trex RainEscape Soffit Light, a plug-and-play LED Soffit light that is installed in the under-deck ceiling of a two-story deck; Trex Seal Ledger Flashing Tape, butyl flashing tape with an aluminum liner; Trex Pergola, Pergolas made from low maintenance aluminum reinforced cellular PVC; Trex Lattice outdoor boards; Trex Cornhole boards; Trex Blade, a specialty saw blade for wood-alternative composite decking; Trex SpiralStairs; and Trex Outdoor Kitchen cabinetry. The company sells its products through wholesale distributors, retail lumber dealers, and Home Depot and Lowe's stores. Trex Company, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Winchester, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Trex Company Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.2 % · buybacks/dilution +1.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TREX screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Trex Celebrates 30 Years of Innovation with Vision to Own the Backyard
- Trex Company Appoints Brian J. Taylor as Chief Commercial Officer
- Did Trex’s Bigger Buyback and Weaker Q2 Profits Just Recast Trex Company’s (TREX) Investment Narrative?
- Trex (TREX) Stock May Be 47% Undervalued On Little Rock Expansion
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 243 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $454.31 | $208.50 | −54% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.23 | $44.75 | −69% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $57.25 | $16.85 | −71% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €81.20 | €97.97 | +21% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 577.80 | CHF 307.66 | −47% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $377.25 | $363.09 | −4% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €66.79 | −23% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $74.64 | $53.22 | −29% |
| Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL | $356.53 | $340.70 | −4% |
| BELIMO Holding BEAN | CHF 878.50 | CHF 227.18 | −74% |
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