TPZ.TO (TPZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$4.9B (≈ $3.6B) · ISIN CA89055A2039
What is TPZ.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 246% above our fair value of C$9.21.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +2.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$12.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$11.00 – C$33.18 · fair‑value band C$8.45 – C$12.68 · the C$31.89 price screens above the C$9.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
TPZ.TO (TPZ) currently trades at C$31.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.21, implying the stock looks roughly 246.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$38.43 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$31.89 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$4.64, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, TPZ.TO generated revenue of C$154M at a net margin of 15.1%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. Net debt stands at C$570M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$8.45 (bear case) to C$12.68 (bull case); at C$31.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −71%, TPZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (C$38.43) versus Economic Profit (C$4.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Topaz Energy Corp. operates as a royalty and infrastructure energy company in Canada. It operates through Royalty Production and Infrastructure segments. The company holds royalty interests on approximately 9 million gross acres of developed and undeveloped lands.
Full company description
Topaz Energy Corp. operates as a royalty and infrastructure energy company in Canada. It operates through Royalty Production and Infrastructure segments. The company holds royalty interests on approximately 9 million gross acres of developed and undeveloped lands. It is also involved in operating natural gas processing facilities; and associated crude oil and condensate handling facilities, as well as water management infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Exshaw Oil Corp. and changed its name to Topaz Energy Corp. in November 2019. Topaz Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TPZ.TO reported revenue of C$325M in FY2025 versus C$212M in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$129M in FY2025, compounding +47.0%/yr from FY2021.
TPZ screens 246% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Topaz Energy Corp (TPZEF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Liquids Production and ...
- Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On Topaz Energy Corp. (TSE:TPZ) Revenues
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 89 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $50.72 | $35.83 | −29% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $74.05 | $11.73 | −84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $39.02 | $20.94 | −46% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$88.72 | C$24.53 | −72% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $31.60 | $10.92 | −65% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $21.31 | $11.45 | −46% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $59.25 | $36.42 | −39% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $95.69 | $58.62 | −39% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $286.91 | $79.61 | −72% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $280.80 | $199.99 | −29% |
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