Toast Inc (TOST) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $17.0B · ISIN US8887871080
What is Toast Inc really worth?
Toast Inc
TOST · US
A solid business, but trading 294% above our fair value of $8.62.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $12.68 – $65.22 · fair‑value band $6.46 – $10.77 · the $33.93 price screens above the $8.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Toast Inc (TOST) currently trades at $33.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.62, implying the stock looks roughly 293.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.94 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $33.93 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.76, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toast Inc generated revenue of $6.4B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.46 (bear case) to $10.77 (bull case); at $33.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −75%, TOST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4534 per share, which is 5.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($26.94) versus Asset-Based ($2.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally.
Full company description
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally. It offers a platform of software-as-a-service for restaurant operations and point of sale, such as Toast POS; Toast IQ, a conversational artificial intelligence; vendor management; multi-location management; kitchen display system; online ordering and delivery. It offers payroll and team management; inventory and supply chain tools; xtraCHEF by toast, a set of back-office tools for restaurants, including accounts payable automation, inventory management, ingredient price tracking, and recipe costing; financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, and restaurant-grade hardware. The company was formerly known as Opti Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Toast, Inc. in May 2012. Toast, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toast Inc reported revenue of $6.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +37.8%/yr. Reported net income was $342M in FY2025.
TOST screens 294% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Toast a Good Buy Right Now?
- Could Toast (TOST) Stock Keep Rising as Its Restaurant Platform Expands?
- Toast Announces Participation at Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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