Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $203B · ISIN CA8911605092
What is Toronto Dominion Bank really worth?
Toronto Dominion Bank
TD · US
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $125.48.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +3.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.10 – $124.80 · fair‑value band $94.11 – $156.86 · the $123.31 price screens below the $125.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) currently trades at $123.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.48, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $110.91 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $123.31 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $51.84, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toronto Dominion Bank generated revenue of $59.2B at a net margin of 25.2%. Revenue declined 31.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at $547B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $94.11 (bear case) to $156.86 (bull case); at $123.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 2%, TD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 10 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.57 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($110.91) versus Asset-Based ($51.84). Highest evidence: DDM Multi-Stage (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking.
Full company description
The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toronto Dominion Bank reported revenue of $116B in FY2025 versus $47.7B in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was $20.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch TD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TD Bank Group announces senior leadership appointments to further accelerate strategy
- /R E P E A T -- MEDIA ADVISORY - TD Bank Group Executive to Present at the Scotiabank Financials Summit/
- MEDIA ADVISORY - TD Bank Group Executive to Present at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference
- TD’s (TD) Record Quarter Comes With A Regulatory Asterisk
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
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