Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $164B · ISIN US86562M2098
What is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc really worth?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc
SMFG · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 24% above our fair value of $22.14.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +10.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.77 – $27.56 · fair‑value band $16.60 – $27.68 · the $27.56 price screens above the $22.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) currently trades at $27.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.14, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc generated revenue of $6.1T at a net margin of 26.1%. Revenue grew 21.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $15.4T. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.60 (bear case) to $27.68 (bull case); at $27.56, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −20%, SMFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($3,434) versus Asset-Based ($1,672). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 89
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through four segments: Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit.
Full company description
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through four segments: Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit. The Wholesale Business Unit segment offers bilateral loans, syndicated loans, commitment lines, structured finance, project finance, and nonrecourse loans; deposits and investment trusts; risk hedging services, including forward exchange contracts and derivatives; stand-by credit, and performance bond and credit guarantee services; remittance, cash management, trade finance, and supply chain finance services; merger and acquisition, and other advisory services; digital services; and equipment, operating and leveraged leasing services. The Retail Business Unit segment provides wealth management services, such as time deposits and foreign currency deposits, investment trusts, equities, bonds, insurance products, and trust services; credit card, installment, and transaction services; and consumer finance and housing loans. The Global Business Unit segment offers loans, deposits, clearing, trade finance, project finance, loan syndication, derivatives, and global cash management services; equity and fixed income sales and trading, and underwriting services; and construction machinery, transportation equipment, industrial machinery, medical equipment, and other leasing services. The Global Markets Business Unit segment provides asset liability management and portfolio management, foreign currency funding, and sales and trading services. The company offers system development, data processing, management consulting, economic research, and asset management services. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc reported revenue of ¥10.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.8T in FY2022, a compound +29.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.7T in FY2026, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +10.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SMFG screens 24% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- GGAL or SMFG: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (TSE:8316) Stock Looks Reasonable On Fair Value But Rich On Earnings
- Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (TSE:8316) Expensive As Its Strong Run Meets Valuation Doubts?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
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